Texas 2026 Primary Poll: Talarico & Paxton with Narrow Edges in Senate Primaries 

Republican Primary Voters Head to Likely May Runoff between Paxton and Cornyn

The final Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media survey of Texas likely primary voters finds State Rep. James Talarico with a narrow edge over U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett in the Democratic Primary for US Senate: 52% to 47%. Since the January survey, support for Talarico increased by five points, and support for Crockett increased by nine points. The poll results are within the survey’s margin of error.

“Talarico holds a sizable advantage among voters who voted early, 58% to 41%, while Crockett leads the Election Day vote, 50% to 39%, suggesting the outcome will depend on which group shows up in larger numbers by the end of Tuesday,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said. 

Talarico’s support is driven by white voters, leading Crockett 71% to 29%, Hispanic voters, 60% to 39%, and men, 58% to 41%. Crockett’s support is driven by female voters, leading 51% to 48%, and Black voters, 80% to 18%.

Since the January poll, support for Talarico among white voters increased 14 points (57% to 71%), while Crockett gained two points (27% to 29%). Crockett’s support increased 14 points among Hispanic voters (25% to 39%), while Talarico increased one point (59% to 60%). Crockett maintained 80% among Black voters, while Talarico picked up 10 points (8% to 18%).

Voters under 40 break for Talarico by ten points, 54% to 44%, while voters in their 40s to 60s are evenly split: 50% support Talarico and 49% Crockett. Voters over 70 support Talarico 55% to 42%.

Voters who affiliate as Democrats are split: 50% for Crockett and 49% for Talarico. Voters who affiliate as independent break for Talarico, 62% to 35%.

In the Republican Primary, 40% support Attorney General Ken Paxton and 36% incumbent Senator John Cornyn, while 17% support Rep. Wesley Hunt. Since January, Paxton’s support has increased by 13 points, Cornyn’s by ten points, and Hunt’s by one point.

Cornyn leads among early voters, 38% to 34%, while Paxton holds a 12-point lead among likely Election Day voters, 44% to 32%. 

“Senator Cornyn performs strongest among Republican Primary voters with college degrees, leading Paxton 43% to 32%, and voters over 70, 52% to 35%, while Paxton leads with voters under 50, 38% to 22%, and voters in their 50s and 60s, 44% to 30%,” Kimball said. 

“With Rep. Hunt picking up 18% among early voters, his presence in the race appears likely to hold Paxton and Cornyn under the 50% needed to avoid a runoff,” Kimball said. 

Paxton draws stronger support from 2024 Trump voters, leading Cornyn 46% to 33%, while Cornyn performs significantly better among voters who supported Harris or another candidate in 2024, winning 49% of that group compared to eight percent for Paxton.

Methodology

The Emerson College Polling Texas survey was conducted February 26-27, 2026. 

The sample of likely Democratic Primary voters/those who have already voted includes a sample size of n=850 with a credibility interval of +/-3.3 percent. The sample of likely Republican primary voters/those who have already voted includes a sample size of n=547 with a margin of error of +/- 4.1 percent. 

It is important to remember that subsets based on demographics, such as gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity, carry with them higher credibility intervals, as the sample size is reduced. Survey results should be understood within the poll’s range of scores, and with a confidence interval of 95% a poll will fall outside the range of scores 1 in 20 times. 

Data was collected by contacting a list of voters’ cellphones via MMS text-to-web, landlines via Interactive Voice Response, and panel interviews for Democratic Primary voters provided by PureSpectrum and matched to the Aristotle voter file using respondents’ full name and ZIP code. The survey was offered in English and Spanish. 

All questions asked in this survey with exact wording and order, along with full results, demographics, and cross tabulations can be found below.