The NHL trade deadline may not have delivered, but it sets up a potentially explosive summer

The 2026 NHL trade deadline didn’t produce the type of fireworks hockey fans wanted to see — and maybe even some NHL front offices.

It might, though, be a precursor to an offseason that delivers some rather explosive moves.

Let me clear, I’m not guaranteeing any of these. I’m simply raising the antennae on some of these situations and players to watch based on conversations with league sources.

Let’s dive in.

Simon Nemec

The New Jersey Devils were absolutely listening on the 2022 No. 2 pick ahead of the trade deadline. But the bar for what it would take to move him was high: a young, impact top-six forward. It didn’t materialize, but stay tuned for the offseason.

“We have seven NHL everyday players on our back end,” Devils GM Tom Fitzgerald told local media after the deadline Friday. “Trying to shake one of those loose here in the offseason will be my goal, maybe to give us some help up front. Maybe a top-six winger or something.”

Nemec recently changed agents and needs a new contract after the season, coming out of his entry-level contract. And I think the Devils already know that the contract conversation will start, from the agent’s perspective, with looking at the Luke Hughes contract: seven years at $9 million per. So, yeah.

It would make more sense to move Dougie Hamilton this summer and keep the younger Nemec. But moving Hamilton has proven difficult. He has two more years on his deal, also at a $9 million average annual value, and his $7.4 million signing bonus for next season is payable July 1, so most likely the earliest Hamilton would move is after that. But given the interest I know is out there for Nemec, I think he could very well be the one who moves.

Roman Josi

There are a lot of ifs in this conversation, but a league source suggested keeping an eye on Josi this summer if the Nashville Predators, under new management, decide to deepen the rebuild and move on from the likes of Ryan O’Reilly, Steven Stamkos and Jonathan Marchessault.

I think if those three are dealt — or even two of them — Josi and his agent, Judd Moldaver, would probably want to have a conversation with the Predators about the organization’s direction. He has two more years on his deal at a $9.059 million AAV, with a full no-move through next season. Josi is as loyal as they come and has been a Predator for life, so the most likely scenario is that he stays put. Still, it was suggested to me to keep an eye on it.

As hard as it is to even think of Josi in another uniform, I actually think this has more of a chance of happening than one might imagine.

Vincent Trocheck

I think the New York Rangers made a mistake not taking their best offer for Trocheck before the deadline. I get it; they had a certain asking price, and it wasn’t met. But Trocheck’s value was probably the highest it’s going to be, fresh off an Olympic gold-medal performance where he was a key member of a perfect penalty-killing unit for Team USA. His brand had been polished with perfect timing ahead of the trade deadline.

Trocheck turns 33 in July and won’t be playing any meaningful hockey the rest of the season. I’m not exactly sure how the trade offers are going to improve between now and the offseason. He’s got three more years on his deal at a $5.625 million cap hit with a modified no-trade clause (10 teams). He didn’t want to go west before the deadline. Let’s see if Trocheck widens his scope this offseason on the trade market.

I think it’s likely he moves, given the direction of the Rangers. I’m just not sure why it needed to wait until the offseason.

Erik Karlsson

The Swedish Olympian has one more year left on his eight-year contract, signed in San Jose back in June 2019. Man, time flies.

Anyway, this could finally be the offseason where Karlsson moves, especially after his $6 million signing bonus is paid July 1. After that, all Karlsson has left on his contract is $1.5 million in base pay for next season. His $11.5 million AAV remains an issue as far as the cap hit, but if the Pittsburgh Penguins were ready to retain half that cap hit, there should be genuine interest.

Karlsson turns 36 on May 31 and remains an effective player. He does also have a full no-move clause right to the end of his contract.

The Penguins are a surprising story this season, still sitting in a playoff spot, and they want to remain competitive next season. But the long-term view also matters, and if GM Kyle Dubas can recoup some assets for Karlsson this summer, I think he will.

Robert Thomas

Alex Steen officially takes over for Doug Armstrong as GM of the Blues on July 1. Whether Robert Thomas will still be a member of the St. Louis Blues by then remains to be seen.

Armed with a full no-trade clause, that will be up to the 26-year-old center. But given the depth of the trade conversations that occurred in the lead-up to the deadline, the expectation is that those conversations will pick up again in the offseason as the Blues try to retool their roster. Whether the very high asking price softens or not, we shall see.

Thomas has five more years on his contract at an $8.125 million cap hit, which is very attractive to suitors because of where the salary cap and salaries for elite players continue to head. The Buffalo Sabres and Utah Mammoth may circle back, but the playoffs also have a way of bringing other teams into the fold. Do the Detroit Red Wings feel they need to take a run at Thomas depending on how the playoffs go? The Montreal Canadiens? Boston Bruins? Los Angeles Kings?

There are lots of possibilities there, and I think Thomas most likely gets moved this summer.

Brady Tkachuk

There has been speculation about Brady Tkachuk’s future with the Ottawa Senators for the better part of two years now, and all of it has been unwarranted.

But that could change. I think the more realistic time frame is the summer of ’27, when the Senators captain will be one year out from the expiry of his contract.

I would bet that Brady’s brother, Matthew, is in his ear about coming to play with him in Florida. I still think the Senators as an organization feel they can convince Brady to stick around long-term, though, selling him with a vision of how they continue to improve their roster.

Regardless of how it all plays out, it would make zero sense to let Tkachuk walk out the door for no compensation on July 1, 2028. Tkachuk does have a full no-move clause, so he has a huge say in how things will eventually unfold.

So again, the summer of ’27 seems like the most obvious window for all these things to play out, whether that’s signing an extension with Ottawa or saying it’s time to move on.

But I’m raising the possibility of this offseason, just in case. Tkachuk getting booed in Edmonton and Calgary last week, that’s a real thing. Maybe the Canadian reaction to Team USA and the White House visit will die down over time, but let’s not pretend it’s not a thing when it comes to Tkachuk being the captain of the team in Canada’s nation’s capital.

Maybe a playoff run by the Senators is a cure-all. Maybe.

Auston Matthews

Matthews has two more years left on his deal after this one at a $13.25 million cap hit and has the full no-move. So anything that may or may not happen runs through him and his agent, Moldaver.

Let me start by pointing out one very important thing: According to league sources, the subject of Matthews’ future has not come up even once this season between Moldaver, general manager Brad Treliving and MLSE president and CEO Keith Pelley. Not once.

But given where the season is going, with the Leafs most likely to miss the playoffs, that conversation is certain to be had after the season.

Before that happens, it will be important to know who is running the team and what direction the Leafs are taking this offseason. If Treliving, who has one year left on his contract, remains at the helm and the Leafs indicate they want to re-tool on the fly and add some pieces around Matthews and William Nylander to make the team playoff competitive for next year, then I do think No. 34 will stick around.

Others will say the smartest thing the Leafs should do, from a hockey-only perspective, is go to Matthews and Nylander and gauge them about their interest in moving and tear the whole thing down to the studs. But my feeling is ownership doesn’t want that. They want big names to keep selling those suites. They’re not interested in a long rebuild.

Again, it’s going to come down to how the Leafs’ offseason plays out in May and June. Whether the Leafs are set up for a bounce-back season will greatly affect the thinking of Matthews and his agent. Either way, there’s an expectation of some serious conversations involving Moldaver and management on No. 34 this offseason.

My personal feeling is it’s 50-50 on Matthews moving or staying.

Connor McDavid

It is important as a matter of clarification to understand the context of No. 97 signing that team-friendly, two-year extension last fall. It did not necessarily mean he was signing it to be on the Edmonton Oilers through the 2027-28 season. My understanding is that the most likely scenario was that McDavid was giving the Oilers this season and next to try and win a championship and then it was decision time again in the summer of 2027 as to where everything stood.

The reason for that is that I don’t think McDavid wants to just walk out the door in ’28 as an unrestricted free agent and not have the Oilers get something in return.

The summer of 2027, if he decides it’s time to leave, would be one year out from his contract expiry and allow the Oilers to gain something out of a trade, albeit a trade in which he controls his destination. Now, there’s obviously a world in which he signs another extension and spends his entire career in Edmonton. Let’s not discount that. But at a minimum, the feeling is he will give the Oilers one more season next year in this contention window.

Having said all that, let me just say this: If the Oilers flame out in the first round of the Stanley Cup playoffs this spring, I can’t discount how No. 97 will feel about that, about the team’s ability to win, and about his place in it.

The most likely scenario is waiting until the summer of ’27 to revisit his future. But I can’t dismiss what the disappointment of a first-round elimination might change.

So file that away.

And finally …

The fact of the matter is, there are certainly more situations this offseason that will generate news. For starters, the 1-2-3 class of the 2023 NHL Draft all need new deals after coming out of entry-level: Connor Bedard, Leo Carlsson and Adam Fantilli. Young stars such as Cutter Gauthier and Trevor Zegras are among other restricted free agents who need new deals. So there will be lots of important contracts signed.

And, of course, there’s 26-year-old scoring winger Jason Robertson of the Dallas Stars: the top-scoring pending RFA in the NHL. The Stars were careful not to add much money to the payroll past this season at the trade deadline because they need the space to re-sign Robertson. It goes without saying that if they can’t sign him, they would need to trade him.

Pavel Dorofeyev, 25, leading goal-scorer for the Golden Knights, is also an RFA July 1.

And let’s say this: Given how meager the July 1 UFA class is looking, RFA offer sheets might be more likely this summer as a better option to improve a roster.

Then, in terms of offseason news, there are also the players who have one year left on their contracts, including Cale Makar, Quinn Hughes, Nikita Kucherov, Alex DeBrincat, Ryan O’Reilly, Drake Batherson and Bowen Byram.

Makar isn’t going anywhere. The Colorado Avalanche will extend him, for sure. And Hughes has been such a great fit with the Minnesota Wild, I see him extending as well.

It’s weird how under-the-radar Kucherov and his next contract has been. Maybe because we just all assume he’s not going anywhere. I asked his agent, Dan Milstein, on Sunday about that next contract discussion coming with Tampa Bay Lightning GM Julien BriseBois.

“I honestly have no idea,” Milstein said. “We haven’t spoken, and on this one, I’m keeping my lips sealed. Nothing will leak from my side, and I would expect the same from Tampa. In the end, it really comes down to three people, not four: Nikita, Julien and me.

“You’ll just have to wait and see if and when something happens. Truthfully, I don’t know how it will play out or, most importantly, when.”

All to say, there will be no shortage of news this summer. The trade deadline may have disappointed. I doubt the offseason will.