The SEC dynasty collapsed: What comes next?

The mighty SEC has literally fallen and can’t get up.

With South Carolina’s loss to UCLA in Sunday’s Women’s Final Four title game, this marks the first time in nine years an SEC team did not win a national championship in either football or men’s or women’s basketball. These things are “cyclical,” but this recent cycle – no matter how you spin it – has not been great.

Especially in the sport that really, really does Just Mean More to the SEC.

A few months ago, the SEC experienced a brutal bowl season. Before inserting your “who cares about meaningless bowl games (unless you win)” hot take, the SEC’s 2-8 bowl record, excluding two SEC vs. SEC playoff games, was not only the worst in league history, but the SEC was favored to win seven of the 10 games.

What’s more troubling is the SEC’s lack of success in the playoffs, having gone three years without a national football championship. For most leagues, a three-year national title drought is no cause for concern. But not the SEC.

It’s been nearly 25 years since the SEC has gone three consecutive seasons without winning or even playing for a national title in football. That was a four-year stretch from 1999-2002 when there were no SEC teams in the BCS title games: Florida State defeated Virginia Tech in 1999, Oklahoma defeated Florida State in 2000, Miami defeated Nebraska in 2001 and Ohio State defeated Miami in 2002.

That was so long ago, Virginia Tech and Miami were in the Big East, Oklahoma and Nebraska were in the Big 12, the SEC Network had not been created yet and Paul Finebaum had hair.

But that was a much different time. In 2003, Nick Saban ended the SEC’s slide by winning a national title at LSU. It helped kick-start a stretch of dominance never seen in college football. 

From 2006-22, SEC teams won 13 national titles in 17 years. Then something funny happened. The start of NIL payments (Now It’s Legal) has coincided with the end of the SEC’s dominance and the Big Ten’s rise, with three consecutive national titles by Michigan, Ohio State and Indiana.

Former LSU coach Ed Orgeron, on the Bussin’ With The Boys podcast in December, said the biggest difference in the SEC was the creation of NIL. “Back then, we used to walk through the back door with the cash,” Orgeron said. “Now, we just gotta walk through the front door with the cash.”

Besides the start of NIL in 2021, Saban, who won six national titles at Alabama, retired in 2022. With NIL leveling the playing field, perhaps the success of the greatest college coach of all-time also may have contributed to the league’s recent dip.

As Saban dominated the league, the other SEC schools were trying to keep up with the Tide to the point they were firing coaches at a record clip if/when they couldn’t match Bama’s success. The majority of other SEC schools didn’t have the patience to build a program, and maybe some coaches weren’t afforded the luxury of an additional season because of the added pressure of trying to match Bama. 

In Saban’s 17 years at Alabama, there were 54 different head coaches hired in the SEC, not including interim coaches. Fifty-four! Arkansas and Tennessee alone combined for 12 coaches.

At the top of that list was Florida’s Dan Mullen, who had three consecutive seasons finishing in the Top 10 of the final CFP rankings, yet was fired before the end of his fourth season. The Gators, who are nearing 20 years since their last national title, are just one example of the impatience of the SEC schools. 

Unfortunately for the league, Saban is not walking through that door again. Not only hasn’t the SEC won a football title in the past three seasons, but it hasn’t had a team reach the title game. 

And it doesn’t look that promising this fall. The SEC increased its league schedule from eight to nine games starting this year. Basic math says that’s an additional loss for eight SEC teams. 

Still not convinced? The season win totals for next season were recently released by BETMGM.  Only two SEC schools — Georgia and Texas, each projected at 9½ wins — were listed at more than nine wins. By comparison, the Big Ten has four teams (Indiana, Ohio State, Oregon and Penn State) projected at 9½ wins or higher.

Teams can obviously outperform expectations, but if the SEC ends up with only two teams with at least nine wins, there will be only two SEC teams in the playoff. There has never been an 8-4 team in the College Football Playoff, and there won’t be this season.

While its recent playoff struggles are well-documented, off the field, the SEC has slowly become very un–SEC-like. In 1992, the SEC created the conference title game. Now the SEC’s baby is all “grown up” – 34 years old and worth between $50-$70 million annually to the conference.

However, several SEC coaches and athletic directors, including Georgia’s Kirby Smart, Alabama’s Kalen DeBoer and Greg Byrne, Tennessee’s Josh Heupel, LSU’s Lane Kiffin and Texas’ Chris Del Conte, have suggested eliminating the SEC title game.

Georgia and Alabama have won 11 of the last 12 SEC titles and they’re saying it’s time to move along.

Also, some SEC coaches have expressed a desire for the College Football Playoff to expand beyond 16 teams.

Prominent SEC personnel are going off the reservation and not toeing the company line? That’s not exactly what SEC commissioner Greg Sankey wants in the most uncertain period of college athletics: no recent national titles and waning allegiance.