Three questions and three answers from Real Madrid 1-2 Bayern Munich

Real Madrid crashed to a 2-1 defeat at home to Bayern Munich in the first leg of this UEFA Champions League quarter-final at the Bernabéu on Tuesday night. The Germans raced to a two-goal lead courtesy of goals either side of half-time, with Luis Díaz and then Harry Kane providing expert finishes. Kylian Mbappé later pulled one back, taking his tally to the season to 39 goals in 40 appearances in all competitions, to give Los Blancos hope of a second-leg comeback in Munich next Wednesday.

1. Would Real Madrid be able to take advantage of a home first leg like against Manchester City?

From the first whistle, Real Madrid looked to play with intensity. If Álvaro Arbeloa spoke about the lack of it in Mallorca on Saturday, there was no sign of that at the Bernabéu as every second ball ended up at the feet of a player in white in the opening minutes, but that faded rapidly into disorganised defending and a reliance on chaotic counter-attacking. Bayern looked the more experienced side and looked in control of this game even when the scoreboard was level. While the possession counter remained fairly even, ending at 49% for Real Madrid and 51% for Bayern Munich, it was the Germans who were dictating the tempo and who were building out from the back, with Real Madrid relying on rapid breakaways and only finding them effective as Bayern’s legs grew more tired later on in the tie. Where Manchester City were blown away by Real Madrid’s initial intensity, Bayern’s wall stood firm and showed the kind of mentality that could make the difference over a two-legged tie.

2. Would Jude Bellingham be fit enough to start? And would he be selected if he is?

Whether Bellingham was fit or not is something that only the player himself and the coach are likely to know, but what is clear is that Álvaro Arbeloa wasn’t willing to gamble and unbalance his system to squeeze a player in when performances haven’t called for it. While this may be seen as a vote of confidence in Thiago Pitarch, once again, it’s also past that point, as it seemed that Thiago had proven himself against Manchester City already in the last round. Here, though, Bayern targeted him and exploited him at every opportunity. It was his man, drifting away from the central space with Aurélien Tchouameni and leaving Harry Kane with acres of space to finish and score a second goal early in the second half. Jude Bellingham came on for 30 minutes and immediately made an impact at both ends of the pitch and seemed to be in good shape and up for the physical demands of the battle. Whether he could’ve endured from the start would be a bigger ask, but his experience certainly seemed to benefit a Real Madrid midfield which had been overrun.

3. Who would start at left-back?

After Ferland Mendy started against Manchester City, it’s seemed that there has been some debate over who Real Madrid’s best option is. There was surprise when some reports from MARCA pointed to Fran García being in line to start against Bayern, ahead of Álvaro Carreras. Carreras, who has missed game time with injury recently ands a yellow card away from suspension, seemed a vulnerable choice, but was the one that Arbeloa opted for. He may now regret it. It was he who was easily dispossessed for the second goal on the halfway line and looked slack. On the opposite flank, Trent Alexander-Arnold fell asleep for the first goal, but redeemed himself with an inch-perfect cross for Mbappé to pull one back later on. It was his first assist of the season in the Champions League. Carreras is yet to show that upside to his game to compensate the defensive lapses.

1. Will the Vinícius Júnior-Kylian Mbappé duo ever work together?

When Real Madrid have looked most fluid, coherent and free-flowing this season always seems to have been with one of Vinícius Júnior or Kylian Mbappé missing. Together again to take on Bayern Munich, they brought pace on the counter, a chaotic presence that could break rapidly, but there was no guile or strategy behind their partnership, exchanging only seven passes between them. Both continued to operate heavily on the left flank, and Fede Valverde’s ability to break down the right, so clinical against Manchester City, was limited as he was pinned back by the threat of Luis Díaz.

2. Is there still a chance in the second leg?

With only a single goal advantage, there is hope for Real Madrid. Bayern Munich haven’t lost a game by more than 2 goals at the Allianz Arena since October 2018. In Europe it hasn’t happened since Real Madrid won 4-0 there in 2014. That’s how important Kylian Mbappé‘s composed finish on 74 minutes could prove for Real Madrid. By keeping the game in the balance, Real Madrid have the opportunity to go to Munich and face a side who have all of the pressure on their backs. They will also feel the pressure of having wasted chances themselves, time and time again. Bayern had several opportunities, from Dayot Upmecano’s scuffed first-half effort to Bayern’s failed counters late on in injury time, and may feel that they could have killed this game off in the first leg. They still hold the upper hand, but Real Madrid may feel that they got off lightly with the result in this first leg.

3. Would this game have ended with the same scoreline with Thibaut Courtois?

It seems a strange question to ask given that Andriy Lunin was not to be held at fault for either of Bayern Munich’s goals, and their xG on target more or less aligned with their goals scored, 2.03 to two goals scored. But at the other end, you had an example of the kind of elite goalkeeper who has rivalled Thibaut Courtois in Manuel Neuer. Even now at 40 years of age, he made one fingertip save to deny Kylian Mbappé close to the hour mark which was the kind of game-defining moment that could have swung the momentum of the tie significantly. That’s why Real Madrid, despite everything, actually ended the game with the higher xG on target, of 2.12, but Neuer denied those chances. At the other end, Lunin did nothing wrong, but wasn’t able to save his team in the same way that his Belgian teammate so often has in big European fixtures.