UConn vs. Duke odds, prediction: 2026 NCAA Tournament picks from proven model

The top-seeded Duke Blue Devils battle the second-seeded UConn Huskies for a spot in the Final Four when they meet in an NCAA Tournament East Region Elite 8 matchup on Sunday. Connecticut advanced with a thrilling 67-63 win over third-seeded Michigan State in the Sweet 16 on Friday, while Duke held off fifth-seeded St. John’s 80-75. The Huskies (32-5), who finished second in the Big East Conference at 17-3, are seeking their eighth Final Four appearance and seventh NCAA championship, all since 1999. The Blue Devils (35-2), who won the Atlantic Coast Conference regular season at 17-1 and tournament championship, are looking to reach the Final Four for the 19th time and win their sixth NCAA title. Caleb Foster is listed as available for Duke.

Tip-off from Capital One Arena in Washington, D.C., is set for 5:05 p.m. ET. Duke leads the all-time series 6-4, including a 66-56 win in their last meeting on Dec. 18, 2014. Duke is a 5.5-point favorite in the latest UConn vs. Duke odds, while the over/under for total points scored is 134.5, having risen 2.5 points since opening at 132. The Blue Devils are at -240 on the money line (risk $240 to win $100), with the Huskies at +196 (risk $100 to win $196).

Before making any UConn vs. Duke picks, you NEED to see the basketball predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every college basketball game 10,000 times. It entered the 2026 Elite Eight on a sizzling 11-1 run on top-ranked over/under picks dating back to last year, and is on a 28-22 run on top-rated CBB side picks. Anyone following could have seen HUGE returns!

The model has simulated UConn vs. Duke 10,000 times and the results are in. The model is going Over on the total, and it also says one side of the spread hits in nearly 60% of the simulations!