The Caribbean is bracing for Hurricane Melissa, one of the most powerful to ever strike the region. Melissa began as a cluster of thunderstorms off the coast of west Africa, which travelled west and developed into a depression, reaching tropical storm status to the north of Venezuela on 21 October. Rapid intensification over the weekend strengthened Melissa to category 4 as it slowly meandered west through the Caribbean Sea.
Melissa is expected to reach category 5 intensity on Monday night, veering north-east towards Jamaica before making landfall on Tuesday by about midday, with peak winds of 160mph (257km/h), which would make it the strongest of only five hurricanes ever recorded to hit Jamaica directly. The most recent, and before now the most powerful, was Hurricane Gilbert in 1988, which brought gusts of 130mph.
Melissa’s notably slow traversal – averaging barely 5mph in recent days – will exacerbate the impact, with extremely high rainfall along its path. Totals of 200-400mm are likely across Jamaica by Tuesday evening, rising to 1,000mm in places.
Similar amounts are expected in south-eastern Cuba from late Tuesday and into Wednesday. In comparison, London and Paris receive about 650mm in a year, while Kingston in Jamaica averages just over 800mm.
The US National Hurricane Center has warned of “extensive infrastructure damage, long-duration power and communication outages and isolation of communities” in Jamaica and nearby islands, with the potential for life-threatening flash flooding, storm surges and landslides.
Meanwhile, two powerful storms battered New Zealand last week. The first, on Monday and Tuesday, was rapidly followed by an even more intense storm on Thursday. The second prompted rare red warnings for wind as gusts exceeded 90mph in several densely populated areas.
Damage included roofs torn from buildings and downed electricity poles; about 90,000 homes were without power on Thursday. Several schools, businesses and public buildings were shut in precaution. Several road and rail links were also closed, some as a result of flooding or landslides, while ferry services and hundreds of flights were disrupted or cancelled.
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Winds were powerful enough to overturn a lorry travelling near Springfield and knock down shipping containers in the port of Dunedin. There was also extensive damage to trees, with one man known to have died after being hit by a falling branch while walking in a park in Wellington on Tuesday.
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