Week 9 Fantasy Football Rankings – The Blueprint

I will update through Sunday morning, so come back then for final news reactions, and check out my content on YouTube, podcasts, and X.

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1. Jonathan Taylor – 118.5 total yards in Underdog Pick’em.

   • Taylor’s half PPR points per game are higher than RB’s since 2019 Christian McCaffrey, and he’s very clearly the best RB in the NFL on tape. Physicality, speed, balance, and hands are all on display weekly. Unreal. The Colts have a 26.75-point team total against a slow and weak Steelers defense, one I’m calling the “Shower Curtain”.

2. Christian McCaffrey – 122.5 total yards in Underdog Pick’em.

   • The Giants are last in rushing EPA allowed, as DT Dexter Lawrence has played through injuries. For that reason, the 49ers are back to a 25.5-point team total after last week’s dud in Houston. Even with that season-low usage last Sunday, CMC is the RB2 on RB1 usage this month. Nothing has really changed for him.

3. Derrick Henry – 98.5 total yards in Underdog Pick’em.

   • The Ravens are tied for 1st in projected points (29.0) while hosting the Dolphins on a short turnaround. Miami held the Falcons down last week but were the worst rushing defense in the NFL by a lot the rest of the season. Henry’s career-worst success rest should bounce back with Lamar Jackson threatening right next to him, and Henry still has plenty of straight-line juice when given space. He’s the RB16 on RB6 usage without LJ this month. Hopefully things pick up the rest of the way with the team largely healthy. Keep an eye out for LT Ronnie Stanley’s status, however.

     

4. Josh Jacobs – 85.5 total yards in Underdog Pick’em.

   • The Packers are tied for 1st in projected points (29.0) while hosting the Panthers as 13-point favorites. That’s when Jacobs typically goes nuts. He’s the RB5 in the last 365 days and is the RB4 on RB10 usage this month with the OL getting healthy again. James Cook just hit Carolina for 216 rushing yards last week.

5. Jahmyr Gibbs – 97.5 total yards in Underdog Pick’em.

   • He’s the RB7 on RB16 usage this month, and the Lions have been leaning more towards Gibbs than David Montgomery this year compared to last. The Vikings have been a lot weaker this year, too. They’ve allowed 4 different RBs to reach 99+ rushing yards, including a career-high 117 rushing yards to Kimani Vidal last Thursday. Gibbs went nuclear back in January against them, too, with 139 yards and 3 TDs on the ground with another 31 yards and another TD as a receiver. That was without Montgomery active to be fair.

6. De’Von Achane – 99.5 total yards in Underdog Pick’em.

   • This is an eruption spot per the rushing EPA chart, and Achane is coming off a season-high 21.1 expected half PPR points. The Ravens defense is largely healthy now, so don’t go thinking this is an easy matchup. Instead, it’s just a credit to the Dolphins’ creativeness and Achane’s explosiveness. He’s the RB9 on RB7 usage this month, with Miami relatively bottoming out. One thing to look for here: Baltimore has allowed 37.7 receiving yards per game to opposing RBs.

7. James Cook – 94.5 total yards in Underdog Pick’em.

   • He’s the RB6 in the last 365 days, as a bankable model breaker. The matchup isn’t as clean this week with the Chiefs on schedule, however. They’re 6th-best against fantasy RBs this year, and Buffalo is 2-point dogs.

     

8. Bijan Robinson – 110.5 total yards in Underdog Pick’em.

   • Compared to the other fantasy RB1s, the Falcons easily have the worst team total this week (19.75) and toughest rushing matchup. The Patriots are 4th-best against fantasy RBs on an insane 3.0 yards per carry. Robinson is too effective and too used in the pass game to fully fade, but this is an uphill battle with the OL regressing and Michael Penix playing through an injury if he returns. This month, Robinson is the RB8 on RB11 usage. That’s the lowest it’s been in a long time after last week’s season-low 7.5 expected half PPR points in the easiest matchup of the week.

9. Javonte Williams – 77.5 total yards in Underdog Pick’em.

   • Last week wasn’t smooth, but for the most part, this Cowboys offense has been amazing. He’s the RB11 on RB3 usage, as he’s been for most of the year. The Cowboys are in a bounce back spot against the Cardinals at home. CMC, Jacobs, and Taylor all have had at least 18.3 half PPR points against them.

     

10. Kimani Vidal – 89.5 total yards in Underdog Pick’em.

    • This is an eruption spot per the rushing EPA chart, and Vidal is a real weapon right now. As a starter, he’s averaging 17.4 expected half PPR points, which would make him the RB3 overall this week. The coaching staff just said he’s playing like an NFL starter, and Hassan Haskins was banged up last week and is a total afterthought. Vidal’s vision and patience have stood out, and with both OTs back healthy, the Chargers look ready to roll. A great 26.5-point team total awaits, and the Titans may not have DPOY candidate DT Jeffery Simmons (hamstring) again. Tennessee, a terribly-run franchise, is 2nd-worst against fantasy RBs. Take Vidal seriously.

      

11. Kyren Williams – 93.5 total yards in Underdog Pick’em.

    • Which RB rotation are we getting off the bye? In the past two games, Williams only had 10.2 and 12.5 expected half PPR points. Before that, Corum had a fumble and was phased out. Who knows? I’d guess it’s going to be the 67/33 split they’ve been usually rolling with. The Rams are projected for the 3rd-most points this week (28.75) against the Saints, so either or both can get home. Williams is in a great spot.

      

12. D’Andre Swift – 85.5 total yards in Underdog Pick’em.

    • This is an eruption spot per the rushing EPA chart, and Swift’s production and usage have been great. He’s the RB5 on RB14 usage this month with Chicago leaning into the ground game more after the bye week. Swift is still a wild card rusher with pass protection issues, but he’s still producing in fantasy football and does create explosives at a good clip now that he’s being used towards his strengths. A 27.0-point team total at home against the Bengals, who won’t have EDGE Trey Hendrickson and was just exposed by Breece Hall last week. They are dead last against fantasy RBs now.

      

13. Ashton Jeanty – 79.5 total yards in Underdog Pick’em.

    • It’s the Post Bye Rookie Bump, but this one is largely out of his control. This season, his yards before contact per carry (0.6) is 37th out of 40 RB qualifiers. The Raiders are once again projected for just 21.25 points despite being at home against the Jaguars. There are questions across the OL especially against this DL, and Jeanty’s usage on passing downs has bounced around week over week. This month, Jeanty is the RB23 on RB13 usage.

14. Travis Etienne – 77.5 total yards in Underdog Pick’em.

    • It’s been a predictably bad month for Etienne, who has faced the Chiefs, Seahawks, and Rams before their bye week. Because of game script, he only averaged 10.7 carries per game then, but that was up at 16.3 carries in September against softer opponents in favorable game script. It won’t be surprising to see a resurgence out of the bye, especially if their C who was missing time is back to full strength. The team total sits at 24.25 points against the Raiders.

15. Tyrone Tracy – 75.5 total yards in Underdog Pick’em.

    • Last year from Week 5 on, Tracy was the RB21 per game. That offense was 28th in EPA per play without All Pro LT Andrew Thomas. This offense with Jaxson Dart and Thomas going has been 17th in EPA per play, and Cam Skattebo was a fantasy RB1 in production and usage. Tracy isn’t as physical at the goal line, but this is a good spot to be in. In fact, he was actually playing before Skattebo’s unfortunate injury last week. Devin Singletary will only complement Tracy if last year and last week’s usage hold. The Giants projected for a rock-solid 23.0 points at home against a 49ers defense missing their best players.

      

16. Kareem Hunt – 54.5 total yards in Underdog Pick’em.

    • Isiah Pacheco (MCL) is week-to-week and likely won’t play here. Hunt will handle the early-down role and almost all the goal-line opportunities, and then rookie Brashard Smith will play the passing downs. Both have value in different league settings, but in half PPR, it’s Hunt as the primary option. From Week 5 to 12 last year without Pacheco, Hunt was half PPR’s RB13 per game despite averaging 3.6 YPC on an offense not nearly as good as this one (+0.12 EPA vs. +0.24 EPA). The Chiefs’ 27.0-point team total allows both to have chances of getting home. The Bills’ 5.3 YPC allowed and recent injuries at DT are things to attack, and the eruption spot placement on the rushing EPA chart agrees.

      

17. Zonovan Knight

    • The Cardinals are 3rd in RB usage this month and are facing the 3rd-worst defense against fantasy RBs. Knight was the lead back for the 2 games before the bye (12.9 expected half PPR points per game), while Michael Carter played on passing downs (8.5 expected half PPR points per game). Carter was released and then re-signed this week, further pointing towards Knight’s status as the back to roster before Trey Benson (IR) returns. The bar for talent is low in this goal-line role with Arizona projected for 26.0 points this week.

      

18. Jaylen Warren – 74.5 total yards in Underdog Pick’em.

    • He’s the RB22 on RB26 usage this month, while largely being the 1a well ahead of Kenny Gainwell. This is expected to be a high-scoring game (50.5 total) with Pittsburgh projected for an above-average 23.75 points at home against the Colts. Indianpolis has been more vulnerable in the air than on the ground for what it’s worth. It’s a neutral game environment in general.

      

19. Chase Brown – 69.5 total yards in Underdog Pick’em.

    • The last two games with Joe Flacco (questionable) have been a lot closer to games with Joe Burrow than Jake Browning. He’s up to 13.0 and 13.7 expected half PPR points, equivalent to RB16 usage. Brown is more likely to hit a big play now, and the TD opportunities are obviously greater with an above-average 25.5-point team total against the Bears.

20. Rhamondre Stevenson

    • Update: He’s been a DNP with a new toe injury, so I’m leaning that he misses this week. I’ll refresh rankings with TreVeyon Henderson later on.

    • As a side note, ESPN’s Mike Reiss cited sources familiar with the team believing RB and EDGE are the two positions most likely to be added at the trade deadline.

    • The Patriots keep changing their RB rotation. Two weeks ago, Mondre had a 90% share before garbage time on 14.2 expected half PPR points, then last week, he dropped to just 11.3 with TreVeyon Henderson getting perimeter runs as a complement before fumbling on his last touch. There isn’t a good read on the backfield, but the Patriots are certified good on offense in general. A monster 25.25-point team total awaits against a Falcons defense that’s light in the shorts and struggling on offense. Game script should be on his side with a 5.5-point spread at home. He’s the RB27 on RB21 usage this month.

      

21. J.K. Dobbins – 65.5 total yards in Underdog Pick’em.

    • RJ Harvey was more involved in a blowout win, but that did include a goal-line wild cat and motion-based shallow cross for a receiving score in the red area. The threat is beginning to emerge, but the Bo Nix offense has been awful in September and heated up in October in both seasons. Dobbins is the RB25 on RB20 usage this month and continues to rip off chunk gains behind a fantastic OL. This week will be a tougher test with the Texans defense ranking 9th-best against fantasy RBs. Denver’s team total sits at just 19.0 points.

      

22. Zach Charbonnet – 53.5 total yards in Underdog Pick’em.

    • He’s the RB21 on RB18 usage this month. Kenneth Walker is starting and more likely for a 20+ yard touchdown, but Charbonnet is the two-minute drill back and was subbed in for the goal-line carry after Walker was on the field the previous play in their last game. The Seahawks have a solid 24.75-point team total off the bye with the Commanders traveling back home on a shorter week, and their defense has been very iffy in every way now that their DL depth is injured and LB Bobby Wagner has reached his athletic breaking point. It’s possible Walker’s speed is favored in this specific matchup, but it has been Charbonnet over Walker for weeks.

      

23. Kenneth Walker – 61.5 total yards in Underdog Pick’em.

24. David Montgomery – 60.5 total yards in Underdog Pick’em.

    • The two games before the bye were Montgomery’s two lowest usage games of the season (4.1 and 8.4 expected half PPR points), and he’s now the RB33 on RB28 usage this month. There is still room for both to have big games (27.5-point team total at home against the Vikings), but the expectation over time should be Gibbs slightly pulls away with touches. That’s largely a problem for another day. Montgomery could close out the game as 8.5-point favorites here.

25. Rico Dowdle – 64.5 total yards in Underdog Pick’em.

    • As the starter, he was at 19.3 and 20.7 expected half PPR points. In the last two weeks with Chuba Hubbard, that dropped to 9.7 and 4.1 expected half PPR points. Coach Dave Canales signaled that Hubbard won’t be the starter anymore after seeing him play versus Dowdle in the past two weeks, so Dowdle could get at least the first crack at establishing the hot hand and could return to bellcow usage if we’re lucky. All that said, the Panthers are in a very tricky spot with backup OL, an ankle-sprained Bryce Young, and a brutal 16.0-point team total in Green Bay. They’ve been 2nd-best against fantasy RBs this year.

      

26. Woody Marks – 53.5 total yards in Underdog Pick’em.

    • His last 4 games have equalled 11.8 expected half PPR points, while Nick Chubb is at 8.5 over that same span. Marks will be used in negative game script, has more juice to spring big plays, and is still splitting the goal line touches in normal game scripts. In the first half last week, snaps were Chubb, 21, and Marks, 20. That held true in the second half as well. In general, Marks is the better player in a 50/50 split. The Texans’ team total is down at a below-average 20.5 points while hosting the Broncos. Only Jonathan Taylor has put up more than 70 rushing yards against them this season.

      

27. Jacory Croskey-Merritt – 57.5 total yards in Underdog Pick’em.

    • He’s fancy Brian Robinson Jr. When the Commanders are trailing, he’s subbed out for Jeremy McNicols, but he can be an upside RB2 when game script is on his side. This week, Washington should have Jayden Daniels back (great), but they only have a 21.75-point team total at home against the No. 1 defense (Seattle). The rookie is the RB24 on RB33 usage this month on average.

      

28. Brashard Smith

    • Most of his production this season has been in garbage time, but this week will be different. Smith will play on passing downs over Kareem Hunt, and with the Chiefs projected for 27.0 points, it’s possible there’s enough Full PPR juice for flex consideration without Isiah Pacheco (MCL).

      

29. Aaron Jones – 48.5 total yards in Underdog Pick’em.

30. Kyle Monangai

    • He played 46% of the snaps last week, rotating in during the first half with D’Andre Swift. Mongangai even had a goal-line attempt on the first drive. The split is getting close to even in terms of snaps, but Swift is still the clear 1a in value. The rookie is the RB35 on RB41 usage since his Post Bye Rookie Bump. A massive 27.0-point team total as 5.5-point favorites allows for some dart throws.

31. Jordan Mason – 46.5 total yards in Underdog Pick’em.

    • Game script and an early-game minor injury played into this, but Mason had a season-low 2.9 expected half PPR points last week despite Aaron Jones’ return coming on a Thursday night game. Jones had 5 of the first 7 touches in that outing. The offense is only projected for 20.0 points this week, so there’s really not much room for two back splitting touches.

32. Alvin Kamara – 55.5 total yards in Underdog Pick’em.

    • The Saints were never going to run on the Bucs last week, especially without their C Erik McCoy (IR). That meant a season-low 4.8 expected half PPR points, despite not competing with Kendre Miller (IR). Things will be equally rough here, with the Rams yet to allow a single rushing TD to RBs this entire season. For reference 60 different RBs have scored a rushing TD. As for the RB rotation last week, Kamara led 6th-round rookie Devin Neal in first-half snaps, 19 to 8.

      

33. Nick Chubb – 46.5 total yards in Underdog Pick’em.

34. Tyjae Spears – 47.5 total yards in Underdog Pick’em.

    • Is it good to be the 1b on a team projected for 17.0 points at home? No. Is Spears starting to make some plays on tape and beginning to close the distance on trade candidate Tony Pollard? Slightly yes. He’s the RB37 on RB42 usage this month, while coming off a (garbage-time-fueled) season-high 12.0 expected half PPR points.

      

35. Tony Pollard – 49.5 total yards in Underdog Pick’em.

36. RJ Harvey

37. Blake Corum

38. Chuba Hubbard

39. TreVeyon Henderson

40. Justice Hill

1. Puka Nacua – 92.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

   • This is an eruption spot per the passing EPA chart, and the Rams are 3rd in projected points (28.75) while hosting the Saints. Nacua’s 21.6 half PPR points per healthy game are easily the most this season, and he’s been a stud while playing through injury before. He “looked sharp” in practice per The Athletic while coming back from a minor ankle injury.

2. Ja’Marr Chase – 94.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

   • Joe Flacco’s throwing shoulder will need a pain injection to play through most likely, which is usually fine but could go sideways of course. Chase has 23.5 expected half PPR points with Flacco, seeing 54 targets over three games. The next closest? Ladd McConkey at 34. We’ll pay attention to the Bears’ injury report after they didn’t have their top-4 CBs last week

3. Jaxon Smith-Njigba – 90.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

4. Ceedee Lamb – 84.5 total yards in Underdog Pick’em.

   • He’s the WR7 on WR9 usage this month and has averaged 15.1 expected half PPR points in his healthy games throughout the year. That’d put him inside the top-5. The Cowboys are the 2025 version of last year’s Bengals because their defense can’t stop a cold and Dak Prescott is largely flashing top-5 QB play. Dallas projects for 28.0 points at home against the Cardinals, who have allowed slot/flanker-adjacent players to particularly pop off against them. Hunter Renfrow (20.3 half PPR), Ricky Pearsall (15.7), Jaxson Smith-Njigba (11.0), and Josh Downs (13.2) had good outings.

5. Rashee Rice – 69.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

   • He’s “ramping up” (83% routes) and is already the WR3 on WR2 usage this month. The Chiefs are back to looking largely unstoppable, too, with a 27.0-point team total in Buffalo. That defense has felt very slow to me, and Rice is the perfect fit to expose it.

     

6. Amon-Ra St. Brown- 75.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

   • His last 4 games against the Vikings: 6-77-0, 8-112-1, 7-144-1, 12-106-1. The Lions have scored 30+ in all 4 outings.

7. Davante Adams – 63.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

   • This is an eruption spot per the passing EPA chart, and the Rams are projected for 28.75 points vs. the Saints (3rd most). Adams has averaged 14.9 expected half PPR points in Puka Nacua’s 5 healthy games, which is equal to WR7 usage. Despite the bye week, Adams has 4 more inside the 10-yard line targets than the next closest in the NFL.

     

8. George Pickens – 60.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

   • Splits can be dangerous in small samples, especially when not contextualizing the matchup he had. I’m largely ignoring anything with Lamb on and off the field. We know that Pickens is better without competing with Lamb, but we also know the Cowboys are 7th in WR usage this season with 30.3 expected half PPR points and Pickens deserves plenty of it. Long story short, there is more than enough room for two in plus matchups like this one. The Cowboys have a 28.5-point team total against the Cardinals at home. It’s a lot easier to get home there than when he’s played Patrick Surtain, Sauce Gardner, and Quinyon Mitchell on the perimeter.

9. Justin Jefferson – 72.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

   • He’s the WR19 on WR7 usage this month, but things are about to look different with J.J. McCarthy back. In a small sample, the sophomore had a league-worst -7.3 completion percentage over expected, while Carson Wentz was at +1.1, despite playing through a broken shoulder. To translate, Wentz might be more accurate, which might explain the foot(work) fetish the Vikings coaching staff has had with their work-in-progress QB. Jefferson can make it work with just about every QB, but it’s possible the team is more balanced with McCarthy than they’ve been at any point with coach Kevin O’Connell. Hopefully, McCarthy has learned to just chuck it up to Jettas whenever he can. A below-average 20.0 team total awaits, against a man-heavy Lions defense.

10. Zay Flowers – 68.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

    • This is an eruption spot per the passing EPA chart, and the Ravens are 1st in projected points (29.0) with Lamar Jackson back. Miami keeps putting CBs we’ve never heard of on injured reserve, further weakening their already terrible secondary. Flowers had top-5 underlying metrics early in the season with Lamar, too, so there’s an underrated ceiling now as he firmly enters his prime.

11. Ladd McConkey – 60.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

    • He’s the WR8 on WR6 usage this month. This is an eruption spot per the passing EPA chart. For some reason that I can’t explain, the Titans traded slot CB Roger McCreary this week, and that’s who would’ve been defending McConkey for some of this game. Outside CB1 L’Jarius Sneed is also now on IR, and DPOY candidate DT Jeffery Simmons (hamstring) and EDGE Arden Key (quad) remained DNPs on Wednesday.

      

12. DK Metcalf – 59.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

    • Metcalf is getting his signature downfield looks, but he’s also being used in the at-line check game with Aaron Rodgers, which means a couple of extra quick passes, too. He’s the WR17 on WR23 usage this month, and nobody has been able to stop the Colts on offense this year. The Colts have allowed 120 receptions to WRs, 11 more than any other defense. Those are correlated.

13. Drake London – 67.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

    • He’s the WR4 on WR3 usage this month in his healthy games, but London was limited on Wednesday (hip). The Falcons also will have Michael Penix playing through his own knee injury, and the offense has felt off for a couple of weeks. A below-average team total (19.75 points) confirms what I’ve seen on film, and the matchup won’t be easy with Pro Bowl CB Christian Gonzalez matching him with size.

14. Jaylen Waddle – 62.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

    • In 3 games without Tyreek Hill and without playing with weather against the Browns, Waddle is averaging 17.0 half PPR points (WR4) on 10.8 expected half PPR points (WR19 usage). He’s very good, and there’s no Darren Waller now, too. The Ravens have an outside CB in Nate Wiggins who can run stride for stride with Waddle, plus have a lot of their defense back from injury now. Miami’s 21.5-point team total lowers the floor here, but if their own defense can’t stop Lamar Jackson, then this could be a big second half.

15. Rome Odunze – 67.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

    • This is an eruption spot per the passing EPA chart while hosting the Bengals on a 27.25-point team total. Odunze had an unfortunate dry spell with the offense leaning run heavy and with having a TD called back for penalty, but he’s still the primary read on most standard dropbacks. Odunze’s hands have been problematic at times, but the rest of his game is damn good. Of note, Cincy’s best defensive player is CB1 D.J. Turner, who has been excellent against outside WR1s. DK Metcalf (6.5 half PPR), Romeo Doubs (8.0), Jameson Williams (1.5), Courtland Sutton (16.6), Justin Jefferson (10.0), Brian Thomas Jr. (6.9), and Jerry Jeudy (9.1) have been bad to fine.

    • Update: He did not practice with a heel injury. Neither did D.J. Moore (hip), Luther Burden (concussion), and Olamide Zaccheus (knee).

16. Nico Collins – 61.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

    • Assuming he’s back from the concussion protocol, Collins finds himself in a mediocre spot at home against the Broncos. Luckily for him, All Pro CB1 Patrick Surtain (pec) is headed to IR, so his individual matchup will be a lot easier. The Texans also experimented with fewer 3-WR sets and more 6-OL sets without Collins, which could help him dominate targets even more if that continues with him back in the mix. Houston’s 20.5-point team total is clearly below average, however. Collins is the WR18 in the last 365 days.

17. Michael Pittman – 54.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

    • This is an eruption spot per the passing EPA chart, and Pittman is the WR18 on WR25 usage this month. It’s been that way the entire year now that’s he’s healthy after a back injury derailed last season. The Steelers are 5th-worst against fantasy WRs, and their outside CBs have been a big part of the problem. Ja’Mar Chase (30.1 half PPR), Tee Higgins (18.6), Justin Jefferson (17.6), Jordan Addison (13.4), Jaxon Smith-Njigba (14.3), Tory Horton (10.2), and Garrett Wilson (19.0) all had great games.

    • Update: Josh Downs (hip) was a DNP.

18. Tee Higgins – 55.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

    • Joe Flacco’s throwing shoulder will need a pain injection to play through most likely, which is usually fine but could go sideways of course. In games with him, Higgins is averaging 10.4 expected half PPR points (WR23 usage) and has flashed his big-play ability again. We’ll pay attention to the Bears’ injury report after they didn’t have their top-4 CBs last week.

19. Marvin Harrison – 58.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

    • This is an eruption spot per the passing EPA chart, and our eye balls agree. The Cowboys have allowed 15 TDs to WRs, which is 4 more than any other defense. Their 35.2 half PPR points per game to WRs is also 3.3 more than anyone else. Dallas is also without CB1 Trevon Diggs right now. If not now, when? Harrison is the WR35 on WR47 usage this month removing his concussion game, and in the last 365 days, he’s the WR46 per game. Come on!!!!

20. Deebo Samuel – 52.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

    • Terry McLaurin was ruled out, and Jayden Daniels is expected to return. When he’s had QB1 in 4 games, Samuel has had 14.0 half PPR points on 11.8 expected half PPR points per game, including some overlap with Scary Terry out there. The Commanders OL is banged up, as is Daniels as a scrambler, so it wouldn’t be a surprise to fully lean on Deebo while hosting a powerful Seahawks DL. Unfortunately, Deebo will have to take on stud slot CB Devin Witherspoon for some of his reps.

21. Tetairoa McMillan – 56.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

    • There can be exceptions. I like the rookie more when the Panthers are expected to lose by a lot, even if the team total is only at 15.25 points in Green Bay. The Panthers are run-heavy at heart, but whenever they’re forced into pure dropbacks, McMillan shines. He’s just so good in so many ways. The Packers will put a lot of pressure on Bryce Young’s injured ankle and this backup-quality OL, but at least McMillan is promised looks here. That’s not always the case. He’s the WR21 on WR24 usage this month, coming off a season-high 15.1 expected half PPR points in very clear negative game script last week. Green Bay has recently allowed nice games to similar profiles in DK Metcalf (14.0 half PPR), Ja’Marr Chase (20.1), George Pickens (29.4).

22. Courtland Sutton – 59.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

    • The Texans are the best defense in passing EPA allowed with CB Derek Stingley and CB Kamari Lassiter holding it down in the secondary with an elite pass rushing duo up front. Denver’s team total is down at 19.0 points, 4th-fewest on the slate. This is a projected down game for Sutton, who has been the WR16 in the last 365 days and is the WR37 on WR27 usage this month.

    • Update: Marvin Mims (concussion) was a DNP.

23. Stefon Diggs – 49.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

    • He’s the WR26 on WR29 usage this month, and this is a great spot for the Patriots. They’re projected for 25.25 points against the Falcons, who were smoked by the Dolphins last week. Diggs will dodge CB1 A.J. Terrell, who doesn’t go into the slot ever, for at least half of his snaps most likely by playing in the slot (41%). If Rhamondre Stevenson (toe) can’t go, the Patriots have even more reason to pass the ball this week.

24. Xavier Worthy – 54.5 total yards in Underdog Pick’em.

    • His 3 healthy games without Rashee Rice averaged 11.5 expected half PPR points (WR14 usage), but that’s dropped to 8.0 (WR45 usage) in the 2 games with Rice. The sample is too small to fully lean into, but it does check out logically. Rice is getting all the manufactured touches that Worthy at one point received. Instead, Worthy will likely need to be more opportunistic with his downfield opportunities. Luckily for him, he can run like the wind, Patrick Mahomes is playing like the MVP again, and the Chiefs are 6th in WR usage this month on the 3rd-highest neutral pass rate. The Bills defense feels slow in general, but they do have 1st-round CB Maxwell Hairston back in the mix, and he’s pretty much as fast as Worthy is. Fun matchup when they sub him in.

      

25. Brian Thomas – 53.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

    • He’s the WR22 on WR21 usage this month and is the WR20 in the last 365 days, even with last year’s elite finish with Mac Jones and without Travis Hunter emerging. Thomas was wearing a non-contact jersey in practice while working through a shoulder injury, which could explain his wonky hands this year. His drops could force Travis Hunter into the WR rotation a whole lot more than earlier in the year, so this story is far from over. The Jaguars should feel more ready after the bye and catch a Raiders secondary that’s been brutal to watch for the entire year. All Pro EDGE Maxx Crosby (knee) was a DNP on Wednesday.

26. Travis Hunter – 47.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

    • This Post-Bye Rookie Bump could absolutely melt faces if he graduates out of slot-only work. We’ll see, but the Jaguars’ WRs have been awful and TE Brenton Strange is still out. There are reasons for Hunter to lean more towards wide out and away from a choice route role. It’s unfair to copy/paste production and usage from a blowout loss before the bye, but that was a 22.2 expected half PPR point outing for Hunter in Week 7 and he had a very nice TD on an intermediate route. The Jaguars catch a Raiders defense that has been really bad in zone coverage this year. They’ve been 4th-worst against the position.

27. Jordan Addison – 44.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

    • He’s the WR13 on WR13 usage this month, but things are about to look different with J.J. McCarthy back. In a small sample, the sophomore had a league-worst -7.3 completion percentage over expected, while Carson Wentz was at +1.1, despite playing through a broken shoulder. To translate, Wentz might be more accurate, which might explain the foot(work) fetish the Vikings coaching staff has had with their work-in-progress QB. A below-average 20.0 team total awaits, against a man-heavy Lions defense.

28. Romeo Doubs – 51.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

    • He’s the WR44 on WR18 usage this month, coming off an 8.5 expected half PPR point game with Christian Watson rotating in as a go-to downfield option. Doubs operates in the underneath and intermediate parts of the field in pure dropback situations and has been the primary receiver in the red zone for years. That could come in handy with a monster 28.75-point team total against the Panthers.

29. Chris Olave – 55.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

    • It’s been a great month. He’s the WR10 on WR10 usage, but things are about to get a lot tougher. The Rams are 2nd-best in passing EPA allowed and just traded for a quality CB starter in Roger McCreary. This is a dangerous spot for 2nd-round rookie Tyler Shough to make his debut, especially with a backup C, too.

30. Quentin Johnston – 38.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

    • This is an eruption spot per the passing EPA chart, and Johnston is the WR25 in the last 365 days. Last week’s total dud is largely the outlier, but there are some things to monitor. He’s being subbed out in some personnel groupings, but those are largely the run looks. He’s still running routes on 87% of the dropbacks in the past 2 weeks. The hard part is a young Darren Waller has emerged in the offense. It’s probably the deepest receiving group in the NFL at this point. The expectation should be boom-bust WR3 production now. Drawing the Titans without CBs L’Jarius Sneed (IR) and Roger McCreary (trade) right now is great timing.

31. Keenan Allen – 47.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

    • This is an eruption spot per the passing EPA chart, and the Chargers are projected for 26.0 points against a Titans defense missing stars on the DL and their young starting nickel, who was traded away this week (for some reason???). The paths to upside are obvious matchup wise, but there are usage trends needing to be pointed out. Over the past two weeks, the Chargers have kicked up their TE and FB usage, meaning fewer routes in 3-WR sets. He plays 68% of those 3-WR sets and is targeted heavily whenever out there, but he’s not playing in the 2- and 1-WR sets right now. Literally not at all. They’ll sub in 2nd-round rookie Tre Harris instead. It lowers his overall profile after starting out hot early. Luckily, his production then was already enough to pay off his double-digit round ADP in August.

32. Khalil Shakir – 49.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

    • He’s moving really well now after being slowed by a training camp injury. Shakir has also dodged breakout candidates in Keon Coleman and others in the offense, so the ball flowing towards their explosive slot wouldn’t be surprising moving forward. The Bills are also 4th-lowest in pass attempts this season for game-script related reasons, but that shouldn’t hold here with the Chiefs coming to Buffalo as 2-point favorites. On top of that, the Chiefs are playing CB1 Trent McDuffie on the outside, where Shakir rarely lines up. This is looking like a fun week. He’s the WR41 in the last 365 days and the WR33 on WR36 usage this month.

    • Update: Josh Palmer did not practice with a knee injury.

33. Wan’Dale Robinson – 52.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

    • He’s the WR32 on WR37 usage this month, even including last week’s season-low 5.0 expected half PPR points with Darius Slayton back. Nothing really changed, though, as he ran a route on 97% of dropbacks. This week’s home matchup is cleaner against the 49ers without all of their best players, and the Giants are getting respect with a 23.0-point team total. 49ers slot CB Upton Stout (shoulder) was limited on Wednesday.

34. Jauan Jennings – 49.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

    • It’s been really ugly due to injuries and some contested catch incompletions, but this is inarguably a good spot for him to turn it around. The 49ers have a 25.5-point team total with Brock Purdy likely returning but with Ricky Pearsall and Brandon Aiyuk not expected back. The Giants, meanwhile, have CB1 Paulson Adebo (and two other starting CBs) as DNPs on the practice report. They’ve already allowed 12 WRs to reach 10+ half PPR points this year, leading to the 6th-worst ranking in points allowed to the position.

35. Troy Franklin – 45.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

    • The Texans are the best defense in passing EPA allowed with CB Derek Stingley and CB Kamari Lassiter holding it down in the secondary with an elite pass rushing duo up front. It’s half the spot as it was last week, when he scored two TDs against the Cowboys. Throughout the month, Franklin is the WR28 on WR17 usage, and Marvin Mims (concussion) may not suit up.

36. Alec Pierce – 40.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

    • This is an eruption spot per the passing EPA chart, as always. Piece continues to flash on tape and is the WR39 on WR38 usage this month. He won’t be a volume hog, but he’s the downfield threat on the best offense in the NFL. He’s starting to run more breaking routes and can play the ball in the air, too. There are far worse dart throws, especially if Josh Downs (hip) can’t go.

37. Jameson Williams – 44.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

    • His last 4 games against the Vikings: 6-34-0, 1-(-4)-0, 5-43-0, 1-41-1.

38. Darius Slayton – 41.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

    • In his return from a hamstring injury, Slayton ran routes on 72% of Giants dropbacks. He was robbed of a 68-yard TD due to OPI, and then dropped a potential downfield grab with Quinyon Mitchell in his grill. This matchup is easier with the 49ers missing their entire DL and LB group. If Jaxson Dart has more time, Slayton has more time to work downfield. His skillset matches up well with Dart’s aggressiveness and ability to buy time.

39. Jakobi Meyers – 52.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

    • It certainly doesn’t feel like this, but in the last 365 days, Meyers is the WR30 per game. The Raiders will enjoy the return of All Pro TE Brock Bowers this week, and there is skill set overlap between the two. Tre Tucker has taken a step on tape, too. The Jaguars defense has a major advantage in the trenches and has been opportunistic forcing turnovers.

40. Kayshon Boutte – 36.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

    • He’ll get the most difficult matchup for the Patriots with Pro Bowl CB A.J. Terrell only playing on the outside with Pro Bowl S Jesse Bates backing him up. They’ve been 7th-best against fantasy WRs this season. It’ll be hard to keep the good times rolling, but Boutte is turning into a real route runner at X receiver. He had two nasty double moves last week. Boutte is the WR9 on WR75 usage this month. Shoutout to the deep ball.

41. Chimere Dike

    • The flashes are emerging on tape. First, Dike can really run. They’ve hit on some crossers to showcase that speed, and those are the type of plays called when trailing heavily. That’ll be the case here as 9-point home dogs to the Chargers, who have DBs on the injury report right now including All Pro S Derwin James and CB Tarheeb Still. The Day 3 rookie is far more reliable than Elic Ayomanor, who’s tape I have not enjoyed really at all. Dike’s last two games have been his biggest, and last week’s came on a season-high 11.3 expected half PPR points.

42. DJ Moore

43. Josh Downs – 36.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

44. Christian Watson – 39.5 total yards in Underdog Pick’em.

45. Rashid Shaheed – 42.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

    • The Rams are 2nd-best in passing EPA allowed and just traded for a quality CB starter in Roger McCreary. This is a dangerous spot for 2nd-round rookie Tyler Shough to make his debut, especially with a backup C, too.

46. Darnell Mooney – 43.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

47. Kendrick Bourne – 42.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

48. Keon Coleman – 40.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

49. Matthew Golden – 33.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

50. Rashod Bateman – 32.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

51. Tre Tucker – 35.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

52. Cooper Kupp – 38.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

53. Jaylin Noel

54. Calvin Austin – 35.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

1. Trey McBride – 67.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

2. Tucker Kraft – 57.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

   • He has a case for being the best all-around TE in the NFL, and the Packers project for 28.5 points this week (3rd most). To top things off, Kraft had a season-high 13.7 expected half PPR points just last week.

     

3. Tyler Warren – 54.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

   • He’s the WR6 on WR8 usage this month, and the Steelers are 2nd-worst against fantasy TEs (16.3 half PPR points per game). Tucker Kraft (29.8 half PPR), Noah Fant (12.4), and Harold Fannin (11.6) have been TE1s in 3-straight weeks against them.

4. Brock Bowers – 48.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

   • He was a full participant on Wednesday and should be a “full go” moving forward after taking his time with his PCL injury. In the last 365 days, Bowers is averaging 11.7 half PPR points as the TE2 overall. That was and is with a bad Raiders team.

5. George Kittle – 55.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

   • Brock Purdy returns, so the 49ers project for 25.5 points against the Giants. They won’t have Ricky Pearsall either, and Kittle did run a route on 90% of dropbacks last week. This is a breakout opportunity.

6. Travis Kelce – 44.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

   • He’s the TE4 on TE12 usage this month. Kelce has flashed on tape, despite being written off. He’s legit mobile after the catch still (if we ignore his suddenly iffy hands of course). Kelce is still live for goal-line bullshit and should be amongst the most likely for a touchdown while the Chiefs have a 27.25-point team total in Buffalo. He’s battled this defense plenty recently, but those Bills units were so much better than this one that I’m largely ignoring those splits. He’s the TE7 per game on TE3 usage in the last 365 days.

7. Oronde Gadsden – 47.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

   • In the last 2 weeks, Gadsden is running a route on 83% of dropbacks while playing the most snaps of any skill player on the Chargers. He’s baby Darren Waller on film as a real YAC threat with more size than the WRs in the red zone. The Titans are horrific on defense right now due to injuries and trades, so Los Angeles is unsurprisingly projected for 26.5 points. The only negative remaining is the loaded target competition, but that’s something I’m saying about the receivers with Gadsden breaking out. I’d view Gadsden as FLEX capable this week, too, just in case you have him and one of the other top-7 TEs. He’s the TE3 on TE9 usage this month. That’s a real breakout on film if you ask me.

8. Dalton Kincaid – 36.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

   • Only Tucker Kraft has more fantasy points per route (0.45) this year among healthy TEs, and this is a game the Bills are forced into more dropbacks with the Chiefs in town. Kincaid left last week with an injury but is not on the practice report this week. Josh Palmer (knee) is questionable.

9. Jake Ferguson

   • The return of CeeDee Lamb and the full breakout of George Pickens means Turd Ferguson is in trouble in terms of floor. Just see last week, when he ran a route on 72% of dropbacks. This month, the Ferg Daddy is the TE7 on TE10 usage. The good news is the Cardinals defense isn’t the Broncos defense, and this time Dallas is at home. A huge 28.0-point team total firmly keeps Ferguson in the fantasy TE1 mix.

10. Sam LaPorta – 42.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

    • He’s the TE10 on TE8 usage in the last 365 days and the TE8 on TE21 usage this month. LaPorta has 7-63-0, 1-25-0, and 7-29-1 receiving lines against the Vikings recently.

11. Colston Loveland

    • The Bengals have allowed 18.3 half PPR points per game to TEs this year. That’s insane. Not only clearly the most in the NFL, but it’s more than 18 defenses have allowed against fantasy QBs. Yes, quarterbacks. Loveland had a season-high 8.6 expected half PPR points last week on near full-time snaps without Cole Kmet (back), and the top-3 Bears WRs have been DNP-limited in practice this week. Kmet was limited both days.

12. Zach Ertz – 34.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

    • In 5 games with Jayden Daniels, Ertz is averaging 7.7 expected half PPR points versus 5.1 without him. Now, Daniels is more likely to throw than run, and Terry McLaurin (quad) is likely out weeks again. The Seahawks pose a difficult matchup to run on, so Ertz is in check-down mode here despite a lower-than-normal team total. Dalton Schultz caught 9 passes in Seattle’s last contest. Trey McBride (7 receptions) and Juwan Johnson (6) also were heavily utilized.

13. Theo Johnson – 39.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

    • It’s been in largely unsustainable ways, but Johnson is the TE13 on TE14 usage this month with Jaxson Dart playing without Malik Nabers. He’s a great athlete after the catch (when he does actually catch it). The Giants are projected for a solid 23.0 points against 49ers without Fred Warner.

14. Isaiah Likely – 21.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

    • He ran a route on 63% of dropbacks last week, which was one route more than Mark Andrews. Likely is about to take over with Lamar Jackson back in the lineup, as he enters his prime while Andrews closes out the final year of his contract. The Dolphins have been bad against in-line TEs per Nate Tice, which is where Likely does a lot of his damage.

15. Mark Andrews – 28.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

16. Kyle Pitts – 43.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

    • I’m expecting Drake London and Darnell Mooney to play, and now the Falcons project for 19.5 points with an injured Michael Penix (knee) coming back. He’s averaged 7.1 half PPR points on 7.5 expected half PPR points in the 3 games with the two top receivers healthy. He’s been at 9.4 expected points without London this year for reference.

17. Hunter Henry – 36.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

    • The Falcons have only allowed 3.2 half PPR points per game to TEs this season. That’s nuts. 12-105-1. The entire season! That’s one Oronde Gadsden game pretty much. Henry could be the exception with the Patriots projected for 25.25 points, however.

18. Evan Engram – 27.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

19. AJ Barner – 25.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

20. Juwan Johnson – 28.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

21. Noah Fant

22. T.J. Hockenson – 27.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

23. Dalton Schultz

24. Jonnu Smith – 24.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

Notes coming later.

1. Lamar Jackson – 23.7 fantasy points in Underdog Pick’em.

   • Not only are the Dolphins 27th in EPA per play, but they are also dead last in rushing TDs allowed to QBs this year. Justin Fields (27.1 fantasy points), Josh Allen (23.0), Drake Maye (26.3), and Daniel Jones (29.5) all had strong QB1 outings against this defense. I’m not making many adjustments for injury with Lamar fully practicing all week (for real this time). The Ravens are 1st in projected points up at 29.5 points.

2. Patrick Mahomes – 22.5 fantasy points in Underdog Pick’em.

3. Josh Allen – 22.7 fantasy points in Underdog Pick’em.

4. Justin Herbert – 20.4 fantasy points in Underdog Pick’em.

5. Drake Maye – 20.3 fantasy points in Underdog Pick’em.

6. Kyler Murray – 20.4 fantasy points in Underdog Pick’em.

7. Matthew Stafford – 19.3 fantasy points in Underdog Pick’em.

8. Dak Prescott – 19.9 fantasy points in Underdog Pick’em.

9. Jayden Daniels – 21.0 fantasy points in Underdog Pick’em.

10. Daniel Jones – 19.0 fantasy points in Underdog Pick’em.

11. Jaxson Dart – 19.3 fantasy points in Underdog Pick’em.

12. Caleb Williams – 18.9 fantasy points in Underdog Pick’em.

13. Jordan Love – 18.2 fantasy points in Underdog Pick’em.

14. Brock Purdy

15. Jared Goff – 18.2 fantasy points in Underdog Pick’em.

16. Sam Darnold – 17.8 fantasy points in Underdog Pick’em.

17. Joe Flacco

18. Trevor Lawrence – 17.7 fantasy points in Underdog Pick’em.

19. Bo Nix – 16.1 fantasy points in Underdog Pick’em.

20. Aaron Rodgers – 16.6 fantasy points in Underdog Pick’em.

21. C.J. Stroud – 16.5 fantasy points in Underdog Pick’em.

22. Tua Tagovailoa – 14.4 fantasy points in Underdog Pick’em.

23. J.J. McCarthy – 15.5 fantasy points in Underdog Pick’em.

24. Geno Smith – 16.4 fantasy points in Underdog Pick’em.

25. Michael Penix

26. Bryce Young – 15.3 fantasy points in Underdog Pick’em.

27. Cam Ward – 14.0 fantasy points in Underdog Pick’em.

28. Tyler Shough – 13.5 fantasy points in Underdog Pick’em.

The best defenses of the week are the Rams, Packers, Chargers, and Lions with honorable mentions to the Seahawks, Broncos, Ravens, and Jaguars.