Weekend Box Office: PREDATOR: BADLANDS Tops the Market with Franchise Record Debut

Key Takeaways

Total 3-Day Weekend Gross:
$83,027,858 | +33.7% Last Week / +17.1% Weekend 45, 2024

Finally, some good news. 20th Century’s Predator: Badlands opened on-par with last year’s hit Alien: Romulus, debuting to a franchise record $40M on top of positive reviews and audience reactions. Accounting for nearly half of the overall box office total, Badlands was aided by several middling newcomers on top of solid holdovers to give us our first year-over-year victory in weeks, topping this frame in 2024 when Venom: The Last Dance held court at #1 for a third time.

• Top Title: Predator: Badlands (20th Century) | $40M / 3,725 Screens / $10,738 PSA | Week 1
• Top Opener: Predator: Badlands (20th Century) | $40M / 3,725 Screens / $10,738 PSA | Week 1
• Best PSA: Sentimental Value (Neon) | $200K / 4 Screens / $50,000 PSA | Week 1

1. Predator: Badlands
20th Century Studios | NEWS
$40M 3-Day Opening Weekend | $80M Global Total

After low initial tracking, 20th Century Studios’ Predator: Badlands broke out with an impressive estimated $40M debut on 3,725 screens for a $10,738 per-screen average. While the film was always expected to be #1 with no new major competition, this performance represents an over-index of at least $10M above our own forecasts. If the number stays thereabouts come Monday, it would represent the biggest unadjusted debut for any film in the nearly four-decade-old Predator franchise, besting AVP: Alien Vs. Predator‘s $38.29M domestic bow from 2004.

It is also in the same ballpark as the 2024 reboot Alien: Romulus ($42M opening/$10,812 PSA), which bodes well for the health of both franchises. Like Romulus, Badlands is currently on pace to cross $100M stateside. The new franchise flick also tipped it in the net for Disney to become the second $4B studio of the year after WB, with $4.070B earned globally.

Here’s how the 3-Day looked, including $4.8M from Thursday previews (above The Predator‘s $2.5M Thursday preview)…

• Friday – $15.6M
• Saturday – $14.3M
• Sunday – $10.1M

Both 2010’s Predators and 2018’s The Predator opened to around $24M each, and both finished at a disappointing $51-$52M, which this new one will surpass before the next frame. Some of Badlands‘ success can logically be chalked up to being an accessible standalone story with ties to the Alien franchise, while also rocking a more tween/teen-friendly PG-13. The history of traditionally R-rated franchises pivoting to PG-13 is awash in disappointment (Conan the Destroyer, RoboCop 3, Terminator: Salvation, Live Free or Die Hard, etc). However, AvP already demonstrated that ratings flexibility two decades ago, plus director Dan Trachtenberg deliberately created a scenario of total non-human violence to fit the rating while maintaining the series’ trademark intensity. With an alien and a robot in the lead, a lack of F-bombs was also inconspicuous.

Perhaps the biggest factor, though, was word-of-mouth. Positive buzz on social media began spreading heading into Friday that Trachtenberg had hit another home run after the much-loved Hulu-exclusive Predator prequel Prey. Rotten Tomatoes critical was a Certified Fresh 85%, while audience rating was higher at 95% plus a franchise-best “A-” CinemaScore. PostTrak rating was 4.5 out of 5 stars, but even more surprising was the 5/5 stars from kid and parent groupings which would normally not factor into the gory franchise (91% total positive).

Here’s how the format split went…

2D – 83%

Traditional 2D – 41%
PLF 2D – 26%
IMAX 2D – 13%
Motion 2D – 1%
ScreenX – 2%

3D – 17%

Traditional 3D – 8%
PLF 3D – 3%
IMAX 3D – 2%
Motion 3D – 4%

The film skewed male at 73% vs 27% female despite the female lead in Elle Fanning. Even with the accessible PG-13 rating, audiences 17 and under only made up 6% of ticket buyers, with the majority (47%) in the coveted 18-34 group. Older fans of the aging franchise also came out with a quarter of the audience among the 45 and over crowd. Here’s how demographics played out…

• Caucasian – 40%
• Hispanic – 28%
• AA – 17%
• Asian – 8%
• NatAm/Other – 7%

On the global front, Predator: Badlands‘ $80M WW projection also represents a franchise-best, beating The Predator‘s $73.5M WW bow in 2018. Overseas, it was dead-even with domestic at $40.0M from 52 material territories. In the IMAX format the movie made $10.8M globally, with $5.9M in North America (15% of the domestic bow).

Predator: Badlands – Opening Weekend
Top Ten Overseas Markets
China | $7.4M
UK | $3.2M
Mexico | $2.3M
France | $1.8M
Japan | $1.7M
Australia | $1.6M
Korea | $1.6M
Germany | $1.5M
Spain | $1.4M
Brazil | $1.1M

Other Notable Performances

Amazon/MGM’s true story Sarah’s Oil, about a young black girl in 1900’s Oklahoma who strikes oil on her land, was the second-biggest new release of the weekend with $4.45M from 2,410 screens for a $1,850 PSA. Zachary Levi and Naya Desir-Johnson star in the #4 movie.

Sony’s story of the post-WWII Hermann Göring trial, Nuremberg placed at #5 with an estimated $4M from 1,802 screens for a $2,220 PSA. Critical was so-so at 68%, so don’t expect too much Oscar love despite gold statue winners Russell Crowe and Rami Malek in the leads.

Mubi’s dark dramedy Die My Love earned no momentum opening at #8 despite two enormous stars in Jennifer Lawrence and Robert Pattinson, taking in a paltry $2.8M from 1,983 screens for a $1,428 PSA. The Lynn Ramsey film earned fairly positive notices with Rotten Tomatoes critical at 77%, but audience score was 45% while CinemaScore proved disastrous with a “D+” showing.

Next Weekend

Things begin to heat up next frame starting with Paramount’s big bet on Glen Powell, who leads director Edgar Wright’s action-packed Stephen King adaptation The Running Man (previously made in 1987 with Arnold Schwarzenegger starring). As if one splashy big budget tentpole wasn’t enough, Jesse Eisenberg and Woody Harrelson return for a third rogue magician film titled Now You See Me: Now You Don’t. The previous two Lionsgate entries opened to $29M and $22M, respectively. Director Oz Perkins and his preferred label Neon also bring a contained horror story called Keeper, made during a hiatus on his hit The Monkey and featuring that movie’s star Tatiana Maslany.

Sunday Studio Estimates | Weekend 45 – 2025
Total 3-Day Domestic Gross: $83,027,858 | (+17.1% vs 2024)