Who will join the Hawkeyes in Iowa City?

Welcome to Selection Sunday. As crazy as it may seem, it’s been 132 days since Jan Jensen and the Hawkeyes began their season with a win over Southern. The 32-game season has played out in a way that few, if any predicted before the season tipped off. Injuries have played their part this season, including losing starter Taylor McCabe to an ACL tear in late January. A three-game losing streak followed, but the Hawkeyes stabilized and will enter the NCAA Tournament having won eight of their last nine games. Their 26 wins are tied for the second most by an Iowa team entering the NCAA Tournament since 1988.

HawkeyeReport takes a look at what seed the Hawkeyes are expected to get, who they might match up with in the first round and what could lie ahead in the second round.

What seed are the Hawkeyes expected to get?

The Hawkeyes are going to be a 2 seed and there’s no debate about it. That being said, the order of the two seeds is going to be something to watch. It’s almost certain that the 1 seeds are going to be UConn, UCLA, South Carolina and Texas. It also seems pretty likely that Iowa, LSU, Vanderbilt and Duke will be the 2 seeds, although TCU and Michigan both have an argument to be on 2 line as well. The order of the 2 seeds will determine who gets matched up with what 1 seed. Having already (unsuccessfully) faced UConn and UCLA, the Hawkeyes would like to avoid them, which means they need to be either #5 or #6. Here’s how they stack up against the other possible 2 seeds…

Iowa: 26-6 overall (NET 10) – (10-6 vs Q1), (16-6 vs Q1/2), (10-0 vs Q3/4)

LSU: 27-5 overall (NET 5) – (8-5 vs Q1), (12-5 vs Q1/2), (15-0 vs Q3/4)

Vanderbilt: 27-4 overall (NET 7) – (8-4 vs Q1), (14-4 vs Q1/2), (13-0 vs Q3/4)

Duke: 24-8 overall (NET 8) – (8-7 vs Q1), (14-8 vs Q1/2), (10-0 vs Q3/4)

TCU: 29-5 overall (NET 12) – (4-3 vs Q1), (14-5 vs Q1/2), (15-0 vs Q3/4)

Michigan: 25-6 overall (NET 6) – (9-6 vs Q1), (13-6 vs Q1/2), (12-0 vs Q3/4)

Here’s one final look at Iowa’s resume…

What the brackets are saying…

ESPN (March 14): 2 seed – Charlie Creme of ESPN has the Hawkeyes as a 2 seed in his latest projection, slated to face off against 15 seed Cal Baptist at Carver-Hawkeye Arena. They would face the winner of 7 seed Georgia and 10 seed South Dakota State in the second round. The Iowa City Regional is paired with the Fort Worth Regional, which has TCU (3) and Alabama (6) as potential Sweet Sixteen opponents.

HerHoopStats (March 14): 2 seed – Megan Gauer of HerHoopStats has the Hawkeyes as a 2 seed in her latest projection, slated to face off against 15 seed Cal Baptist at Carver-Hawkeye Arena. They would face the winner of 7 seed Georgia and 10 seed Syracuse in the second round. The Iowa City Regional is paired with the Fort Worth Regional, which has TCU (3) and Notre Dame (6) as potential Sweet Sixteen opponents.

CBS (March 9): 2 seed – Connor Groel of CBS has the Hawkeyes as a 2 seed in his latest projection, slated to face off against 15 seed Fairleigh Dickinson at Carver-Hawkeye Arena. They would face the winner of 7 seed Georgia and 10 seed Clemson in the second round. The Iowa City Regional is paired with the Fort Worth Regional, which has TCU (3) and Alabama (6) as potential Sweet Sixteen opponents.

If Iowa gets a 2 seed, who might they face in the first round?

Generally, there a couple of autobids that are locks to be 16 seeds, but otherwise, it’s really hard to project how the 14-16 seeds will shake out. We’re not going to dive very deep into the options, but we will take a look at the three best teams that could land here. I’ll also list a few more teams to keep an eye on.

Western Illinois (26-5) (Torvik #106) – We shouldn’t be talking about the Leathernecks in this spot, as it is technically against bracketing rules for them to play Iowa in the opening round. However, with the scuttle of charter flight shortages, could that rule be waived to keep WIU close to home? A trip to Nashville to face Vanderbilt could be on the table for them as well. The Hawkeyes won the regular season meeting 86-69, with OVC Player of the Year Mia Nicastro (24.2 ppg) putting up 20 points for the Leathernecks.

Vermont (27-7) (Torvik #94) – The highest-rated of all the options, the America East Champion Catamounts are intriguing for a couple of reasons. They play at the slowest pace in WBB, averaging just 60.3 possessions per 40 and lead the country in three-point defense (24.9%). Vermont also takes care of the basketball, ranking tenth in the country in turnover rate (17.4%). Even with the low possession, low scoring games, Latvian center Nikola Priede is averaging 17.4 points per game.

Cal Baptist (23-10) (Torvik #113) – The second-highest rated of all the options, the WAC Champion Lancers are in the field with an autobid for the third time in six seasons. One area that is interesting with CBU is that their games don’t include many turnovers, as they rank 20th in the country in turnover rate (20.0%), but 271st in forced turnover rate (20.6%). Guards Lauren Olsen and Filipa Barros have combined for 122 made threes for a Lancers squad that averages 8.64 made threes per game.

Other teams to keep an eye on: Missouri State (22-12), College of Charleston (26-5), Jacksonville (24-8), Fairleigh Dickinson (29-4), Holy Cross (22-9) and UTSA (18-15).

***The CAA (College of Charleston), NEC (FDU) and Patriot (Holy Cross) have yet to secure their bid, as they will play later today, but they are all favored to win their respective conference championship games***

What Torvik has to say about some potential 7 seeds…

Highest rated: NC State (20-10) (25) – Although the Wolfpack have ten losses and are just 1-8 against the NET Top 25, this feels like a dangerous matchup if the Hawkeyes got it. They rank 7th in the country in offensive turnover rate (16.8%), 6th in defensive rebounding (75.7%) and 2nd in opponent free throw rate (15.9%). They’ve got Zoe Brooks (16.3 ppg) and Khamil Pierre (16.8 ppg) leading the way in scoring. Seven of their ten losses have been by ten points or less, including OT losses to Oklahoma and Louisville.

Lowest rated: Oklahoma State (33) – Two things stand out when you take a quick look at the Cowboys. First off, they make threes, a lot of them. They average 9.3 made threes per game, which is 9th in the country, while they have five players with 35+ made triples. Three-point shooting can be a great equalizer, especially in the tournament. On the flip side, their defense ranks 304th in opponent effective field goal percentage, 276th in opponent two-point percentage and 323rd in three-point defense.

What Torvik has to say about some potential 10 seeds...

Highest rated: Colorado (36) – The Buffaloes have won eight of their last ten against the Torvik Top 50 after an 0-4 start. During that stretch they’ve beaten TCU, Baylor, Texas Tech and Oklahoma State. Since January 14th, the Buffs rank 7th in defensive efficiency against Top 50 opponents, as well as 18th in two-point defense and 7th in three-point defense. North Texas transfer Desiree Wooten averaged 10.9 per game over her first 17 games, but has scored in double figures in 16 straight, putting up 15.8 per game.

Lowest rated: South Dakota State (52) – The Jackrabbits are the powerhouse of the Summit League, winning the autobid seven times in the last ten years. Senior forward Brooklyn Meyer is one of the best mid-major players in the country, averaging 22.4 points and 8.0 rebounds per game. They’re 3rd in two-point shooting (55.4%), 29th in three-point percentage (35.1%) and 53rd in turnover rate (19.5%). However, in three games against top competition (Texas, Duke, UNC), SDSU was 0-3 with a 32.3-point scoring margin.