Workers Most at Risk of Being Hit by AI Layoffs Are Well-Positioned to Adapt, Study Finds

No one really knows exactly how AI will reshape the job market, but a new study has identified which workers are most likely to adapt if AI replaces their jobs.

Researchers from the Brookings Institute published a study earlier this year for the National Bureau of Economic Research examining how adaptable workers are in occupations with high exposure to AI, meaning jobs where AI could potentially displace them.

They looked at factors like how easily AI could perform certain job tasks, as well as workers’ age, skills, local job markets, and even union membership.

Overall, there’s some good news. Of the 37.1 million U.S. workers in jobs with the highest exposure to AI, about 26.5 million also have above-median adaptive capacity, meaning they are well positioned to find new work if AI replaces their current roles.

The study arrives at a time when tech companies are pouring huge sums of money into AI and trying to build smaller, more “agile” teams with the help of the technology. This year alone Amazon, Vimeo, Pinterest, and Block have laid off thousands of workers.

When announcing layoffs at Block, CEO Jack Dorsey effectively said that the company is betting AI could replace a large share of its workforce. Dorsey said he could have made the cuts gradually over months or years or “be honest about where we are and act on it now.” 

All of this comes as the overall impact of AI on the job market and the broader economy remains difficult to quantify. Goldman Sachs said earlier this year that AI investments have had “basically zero” contribution to U.S. GDP growth in 2025. At the same time, the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas has said it does not expect AI to significantly displace jobs over the next decade. And survey after survey has shown that many executives have not seen significant productivity gains from their AI investments.

Still, the latest research from the Brookings Institution tries to gauge how quickly people could bounce back if and when AI comes for their jobs.

The roles most exposed to AI include writers, customer service representatives, and translators. But there is a segment of the workforce that may have the hardest time adapting and finding new work, according to the researchers.

The study found that about 6.1 million workers face both high AI exposure and low adaptive capacity. Most of the roles fall into clerical and administrative work and roughly 86% of the workers in those jobs are women. The data also suggests that workers in university towns and midsize cities in the Mountain West and Midwest may have the hardest time getting back on their feet if their jobs disappear.

Conversely, workers in web development, marketing, and IT also face high exposure to AI, but the study finds they are more likely to adapt and transition to new roles especially in large cities with stronger labor markets.

The researchers say they hope the study helps policymakers focus their attention and resources on the workers most likely to be affected.