Xi Helps Trump on Iran War as China Assists With Ceasefire Bid

(Bloomberg) — As Donald Trump neared his self-imposed deadline to extinguish Iran’s “entire civilization,” it became apparent one country had enough clout to convince Tehran to deescalate: America’s biggest rival, China.

In the hours after a ceasefire publicly brokered by Pakistan was announced, Iranian officials reportedly credited a last-minute push by China with securing their acceptance, a claim soon after validated by Trump. Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif thanked China for its support, while the White House said Beijing’s role in the truce took place at the “top levels” of the US and Chinese governments.

China hasn’t confirmed — or denied — reports of its pivotal part in brokering the detente, and President Xi Jinping still hasn’t publicly commented on the conflict that’s choked a fifth of global oil supply. But the decision to step in reflects Beijing’s ability to straddle strong ties with Iran, Gulf nations and Trump, and marks a departure from China’s long-held preference of staying on the sidelines.

The shift came down to economics, as the conflict risked disrupting China’s energy supplies, said Zongyuan Zoe Liu, senior fellow for China studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. Data due next week is expected to show a slowdown in industrial output and exports in the month after the US and Israel triggered the war.

“China acted because the war in Iran was directly threatening the economic conditions it depends on for growth and political stability at home,” Liu said. “Trump publicly crediting China is precisely the kind of political capital Beijing wanted ahead of a rescheduled summit.”

A pause to the fighting would smooth Trump’s visit to Beijing next month, with China’s role leaving the US leader in debt to his Chinese counterpart. Trump is already heading to Beijing with his punitive tariffs struck down by the Supreme Court, and with the US military presence in Asia diminished by resources diverted to the Middle East.

For Beijing, however, wading into negotiations over a war with no easy resolution carries risks, even if that action is limited to behind-the-scenes pressure on a friend reliant on Beijing’s support. China is Iran’s largest trading partner and the primary buyer of its oil.

Underscoring the risks, Pakistani officials reportedly told the Guardian that while Islamabad acted as mediator in recent talks, China functioned as “guarantor,” promising Iranian officials they wouldn’t be assassinated during any future negotiations. It’s unclear how Beijing would offer such an assurance, or the motivation for doing so given the repercussions should something then go wrong.