2026 NCAA Tournament Predictions: Bracketology updates from Saturday’s conference championships, more

The NCAA Tournament bubble is closing in on its final form, with plenty bid-stealers still alive entering the finals two days before Selection Sunday reveals the field of 68. As teams make their final case, how far will the bubble shrink, and who will punch their bid.

The NCAA uses the NET Rankings – an analytic algorithm that ranks every team in college basketball by splitting wins and losses into four categories (known as quadrants) – to help the selection committee build the 68-team bracket in March. Bracketology aims to predict how the selection committee will seed each team based on the results to this point in the season while accounting for other factors that impact the final bracket.

As the bubble teams create headlines across the country, there is a much clearer picture of where teams stand in the pecking order. Using that information, here is another early look at the 2026 Bracketology field from On3.

Bracketology will update each day from now until Selection Sunday, with live updates after key results. Stay tuned for the latest projections. Last updated at 9 am ET on 3/14.

Bracketology

Projected 1-line: Duke, Michigan, Arizona, Florida
Last four byes: Santa Clara, NC State, UCF, Miami (OH)
Last four in: Missouri, SMU, VCU, Texas
First four out: SDSU, Auburn, Oklahoma, Indiana

First Four (Dayton)

16 SIENA (MAAC) vs. 16 Howard (MEAC)
16 LEHIGH (Patriot) vs. 16 Southern (SWAC)
11 Missouri vs. 11 SMU
11 VCU vs. 11 Texas

East (Washington)

Greenville
1 Duke (ACC) vs. 16 SIENA/Howard
8 Utah State vs. 9 TCU
Portland
5 Arkansas vs. 12 HIGH POINT (Big South)
4 St. John’s (Big East) vs. 13 UC Irvine (Big West)
Buffalo
6 Louisville vs. 11 VCU/Texas
3 Michigan State vs. 14 NORTH DAKOTA STATE (Summit)
St. Louis
7 UCLA vs. 10 Santa Clara
2 Iowa State vs. 15 TENNESSEE STATE (OVC)

1-seed Duke

Duke remains the No. 1 overall seed in bracketology after surviving a close postseason showdown against Clemson. The Blue Devils are ensured a 1-seed spot, but need to win the ACC Tournament to lock up the top overall spot.

2-seed Iowa State

Iowa State jumps up to take Illinois’ spot on the 2-seed line after a Big 12 Tournament win over Texas Tech. The Cyclones’ loss against Arizona did not do much damage, leaving them in position for Selection Sunday.

South (Houston)

Tampa
1 Florida (SEC) vs. 16 LEHIGH/Southern
8 Ohio State vs. 9 St. Louis (A10)
Portland
5 Kansas vs. 12 Akron (MAC)
4 Gonzaga (WCC) vs. 13 NORTHERN IOWA (MVC)
Greenville
6 BYU vs. 11 Missouri/SMU
3 Illinois vs. 14 TROY (SBC)
Philadelphia
7 Miami vs. 10 Texas A&M
2 UConn vs. 15 UMBC (AEC)

1-seed Florida

Florida picks up a win over Kentucky in the SEC Tournament, helping keep them above UConn for a 1-seed spot. If they win out in the SEC Tournament, the Gators should lock themselves on the top seed-line for Selection Sunday.

2-seed UConn

UConn has advanced to the Big East Championship against St. John’s looking to stay in the hunt for a 1-seed jump in bracketology with a win. The Huskies will require a loss by Florida to complete the swap.

Midwest (Chicago)

Buffalo
1 Michigan (Big Ten) vs. 16 LIU (NEC)
8 Villanova vs. 9 Georgia
San Diego
5 Texas Tech vs. 12 MCNEESE (Southland)
4 Vanderbilt vs. 13 Utah Valley (WAC)
Oklahoma City
6 North Carolina vs. 11 South Florida (American)
3 Nebraska vs. 14 Louisiana Tech (CUSA)
Oklahoma City
7 Kentucky vs. 10 NC State
2 Houston vs. 15 QUEENS (ASUN)

1-seed Michigan

Michigan remains the No. 2 overall seed in bracketology after winning their postseason matchup against Ohio State. The Wolverines still have a shot at the No. 1 overall seed if they can win out through the Big Ten Tournament and get a Duke loss.

2-seed Houston

Houston remains one of the only 2-seed teams which could still hypothetically reach the 1-seed line with a Big 12 title and help from those above. Their spot in bracketology will ultimately come down to Florida and UConn down the stretch.

West (San Jose)

San Diego
1 Arizona (Big 12) vs. 16 IDAHO (Big Sky)
8 Clemson vs. 9 Iowa
Tampa
5 Wisconsin vs. 12 Yale (Ivy)
4 Alabama vs. 13 HOFSTRA (CAA)
Philadelphia
6 Tennessee vs. 11 Miami (OH)
3 Virginia vs. 14 WRIGHT STATE (Horizon)
St. Louis
7 St. Mary’s vs. 10 UCF
2 Purdue vs. 15 FURMAN (SoCon)

1-seed Arizona

Arizona remains in the mix with Duke and Michigan to land the No. 1 overall seed in bracketology after beating Iowa State in the postseason. The Wildcats would need a Big 12 title and losses by those above them, but are at no risk of dropping to the 2-seed line.

2-seed Purdue

Purdue makes a return to the 2-seed line after staging a deep run in the Big Ten Tournament with some key wins. The Boilermakers will look to close strong and solidify their spot on Selection Sunday.