3 bold predictions for Michigan vs Arizona in the Final Four

The Michigan Wolverines are just one day away from facing the Arizona Wildcats in the Final Four. Arizona is by far the toughest team the Wolverines will have faced in the postseason. It has a polished point guard in Big 12 Player of the Year Jaden Bradley, as well as a pair of five-star freshmen in Brayden Burries and Koa Peat, who have more than lived up to their immense hype.

This game very well could determine who is the National Champion, so here are three bold predictions for the Final Four matchup.

Arizona will win the battle on the boards

Michigan has an elite front court, but the Wolverines still may not own the glass. Arizona has been a rebounding machine this season, especially in the tournament.

The Wildcats dominated Purdue, 37-29, on the boards, with four players pulling down six or more. They out-rebounded Arkansas while simultaneously shutting down their bigs, forcing one-and-done possessions. And against Utah State, Arizona won the rebounding battle, 45-23, with three players recording nine or more.

Arizona is third nationally in rebound differential, while Michigan comes in at eighth. Both teams are top-10 in points in the paint, but the Wildcats are physical, excel at drawing fouls and pose the same kind of second-chance problems that gave Michigan trouble against Tennessee in the first half of their Elite Eight matchup. Expect the Wildcats to win on the glass and use it to stay in the game.

Trey McKinney will play increased minutes, score double figures

Michigan had a scare on Wednesday when point guard Elliot Cadeau suffered an allergic reaction before traveling to Indianapolis. Cadeau fell ill due to something he ate.

Cadeau is averaging 10.2 points and 5.8 assists per game and is now back with the team and expected to play. However, everyone reacts differently to allergic reactions, and it’s unclear if there will be any changes in rotations due to this.

With limited time to prepare, this could open the door for more minutes for freshman Trey McKinney, who has been a steady contributor this postseason. The Flint native has scored in double figures in three of the four tournament games, blowing up for 17 points in the Sweet 16 against Alabama. He has also been extremely disciplined, staying under two fouls in each contest, compared to a few of his teammates who have had trouble in that department.

At 6-foot-4, McKenney can match up size wise with both of Arizona’s starting guards, which will create an advantage with the bench guys on the floor. Michigan will need contributions throughout its lineup against a defense this strong. If Cadeau is even slightly limited, McKinney’s opportunity will grow. And in a game this tight, a breakout performance from an unexpected source could be the difference.

Michigan will win on the three-point shot

Arizona has beaten everyone this season without leaning on the three. That’s not going to be enough on Saturday — the Wildcats attempt just 16 threes per game, which is 363rd out of 365 DI programs. Michigan, by contrast, takes 25.2 per game. That gap will be the deciding factor in this game.

When Michigan gets hot from deep, no team in the country can keep up. Arizona’s defense is built to suffocate teams at the rim, and it works — until the shots start raining in from the outside.

It is true the Wolverines’ three losses this year all involved cold shooting nights from beyond the arc. Wisconsin was scorching hot from deep with 15 threes back in January, and while neither Duke nor Purdue shot it particularly well, Michigan shot a combined 13-of-49 (26.5 percent) in those games.

But this isn’t going to be one of those nights. The Wolverines have been much more consistent from beyond the arc in recent weeks, hitting 11 threes against Howard, 11 against Saint Louis, 13 against Alabama and 10 against Tennessee. By contrast, the Wildcats made six, seven, five and five, respectively, in their tournament games.

In a matchup that is so even across the board in every other category, one mismatch would be the difference. If Michigan is hitting its outside shots, Arizona may not be able to match it.