Cincinnati keeps on winning, climbing near the top of the Big 12 race in just its third season in the conference. The Bearcats are undefeated in league play and ranked No. 17 in the country, carrying the momentum of a team that believes it belongs. Utah, sitting at No. 24, has been here before — dangerous, physical and eager to spoil someone else’s perfect run.
The Bearcats have been one of the most efficient teams in the FBS through eight weeks, while Utah has continued to sustain its identity on grit and control. So essentially, it’s a clash of efficiency versus endurance, and both have a style that can hold up when the field tightens.
Here’s how the game could take shape.
All odds by ESPN BET
No. 17 Cincinnati Bearcats at No. 24 Utah Utes
Saturday, 10:15 p.m. ET, ESPN
Line: Utah -8.5
Money line: Utah (-320), Cincinnati (+260)
Over/Under: 55.5 (O -110, U -110)
Utah: The mirage of dominance
Utah is 6-2 with a defense that is among the nation’s best, but maybe that résumé is a bit inflated for my full belief. Two of their most dominant performances came against Cal Poly and 3-4 Colorado, who entered that game 0-2 on the road (and outscored 71-41 in those games).
The Utes won those games by a combined score of 116-16, racking up 17 of their 32 total total sacks. That’s more than half their season production in just two games. Against everyone else, the pressure has been standard, the tackling shaky and the coverage inconsistent.
The season grades for Utah tell the story: 52nd in run defense, 93rd in tackling and 74th in coverage, which means opponents are getting pushed up front, breaking tackles and finding chunk plays in the secondary.
This is not the suffocating Utes defense we’ve known under Kyle Whittingham. In fact, outside of those two blowouts, Utah’s defensive grades took a massive drop against legitimate FBS opponents, which means poor pursuit and poor finishing.
It’s a defense that is solid when the game script is easy, when the opponent can’t hold its ground up front, and when momentum builds on short fields. Against quality competition, however, we see a different, truer version. So while the record looks polished, they’re closer to average.
Betting consideration: Cincinnati +8.5
The line shifted from Utah -7 to -9.5 then back to -8.5. The perception is that the offense loses its identity with RB Evan Pryor out from injury. However, Tawee Walker and QB Brendan Sorsby have combined for over 900 rushing yards and 11 scores, each running with balance and confidence.
Walker breaks one in every five carries, while Sorby’s dual-threat ability is a bonus to his calmness when under pressure, and still efficient when blitzed. That mobility is key against a Utah pass rush that’s explosive in numbers but inflated by blowouts. Against a line that has allowed a single sack in the last month, that edge gets neutralized fast.
The Bearcats play fewer snaps per game but actually create more per-play efficiency, ranking in the top 10 in both yards per play and points per play. That means they don’t need volume, because they have rhythm, and rhythm dictates. It’s how Sorsby can deliver when kept clean, averaging nearly 10 yards per pass attempt, second-best in the Big 12 behind Texas Tech’s Behren Morton.
So while the Utes are built to bully weaker fronts, Cincinnati’s balance and physicality give them staying power deep into the fourth quarter. The line move is rich. The Bearcats offense can score enough, play with control and keep this inside a possession.
But it’s the defense that is coming into this underrated, top-10 in tackling because players themselves are executing assignments and finishing plays well. The Bearcats run defense doesn’t give up much after contact, and it rarely misses one-on-one stops.
Statistically, they look middle-tier, but fundamentally, they are sound and rarely beaten by poor tackling. Another reason to back them as near double-digit dogs.
Betting trends
Courtesy of ESPN Research
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Cincinnati is 4-1 ATS in conference play this season, tied for the best in conference (Houston, Texas Tech).
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Cincinnati has six straight ATS losses in November going back to 2023, tied for the longest streak in FBS (Texas A&M).
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Utah is 9-3 ATS since last November, fifth best in Power 4 over that span.
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Cincinnati is 7-4 ATS in ranked matchups since 2019, second best in FBS (min. 10 games).
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