Bold NBA 2025-26 season predictions: New champion, fresh faces in MVP race and more

Will Victor Wembanyama be an MVP finalist? Will the NBA champion come from the Western Conference (but not Oklahoma City)? Will the Warriors or Pacers make a surprising run in the playoffs?

Maybe! Those were among the responses The Athletic got this week when it asked its NBA staff for bold predictions for the 2025-26 season.

Here’s one prediction for each team as the season tips off:

Atlanta Hawks

The Hawks finish with a top-10 defense: Atlanta was 19th in defensive efficiency last season and has never finished in the top half of the league in the Trae Young era. This year, that changes. First, some poor shooting luck should even out (28th in opponent 3-point percentage; 23rd in opponent free-throw percentage last season). More importantly, by adding Nickeil Alexander-Walker and Kristaps Porziņģis to go with elite ball thief Dyson Daniels and multiple big, mobile forwards, there’s just way more defensive talent now. — John Hollinger

Boston Celtics

Derrick White will be an All-Star: White has long been an advanced stats darling. This season, he will also have the traditional production to land on his first All-Star team. Early signs suggest that White will see a big bump in opportunity after all of the Celtics’ changes. If he finishes anywhere close to his preseason usage rate of 27.8 percent, he will set a career high in that category. Boston will win enough games for him to make the All-Star team while also establishing career highs in points and assists. — Jay King

Brooklyn Nets

The Nets will get a top-four pick: The Nets made five first-round picks in June’s draft, and none were in the top five. That was a credit to the work done by head coach Jordi Fernández and a roster that was a smidge too good. This season, the organization is leaving less to chance, despite the NBA’s quixotic lottery odds. Even owner Joe Tsai has said this is the year for the future. The Nets only have one first-round pick in the 2026 draft, but this time, it will land in the top four and give them a building block player in a draft projected to be strong at the top. — Mike Vorkunov

Charlotte Hornets

The Hornets win 28 games: This may seem like a not-so-bold prediction, but it’s actually not. For one, the Hornets haven’t won 28 games in a season since 2021-22. Second, this is above their projected win total of 27.5 set by BetMGM. Third, this would be a nine-win improvement from last year for a roster that hasn’t really gotten significant outside enhancement. But the Hornets have a lot of young talent, which should be on the ascent. And the bottom of the East is … weak. The Hornets get to be the beneficiary and make some progress in their multiyear rebuild. — Mike Vorkunov

Chicago Bulls

The Bulls won’t make the Play-In: I know, I know. History repeats itself, and Chicago’s intimate relationship with the Play-In has neared obsession. Inevitable, even. But no more. With this youth movement, a backlog of questionable contributors on the wing and a lethal lack of rim protection, the Bulls could stand to win fewer than 39 games. — Joel Lorenzi

Cleveland Cavaliers

Lonzo Ball resurrects his career: Last year in this same exercise, I predicted the Cavs would end up trading either Donovan Mitchell, Darius Garland, Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen. Then they won their first 15 games and were on “70 watch” for months. So, you know, good call. My prediction this year is as risky, because, let’s face it, Ball’s career has been basically derailed by injury.

But in Cleveland, he will come off the bench, and he’s coached by a point guard whisperer in Kenny Atkinson. He won’t be asked to play on consecutive nights, and he is surrounded by shooting. Ty Jerome was a finalist for Sixth Man of the Year last year, essentially in this role. Ball probably won’t play enough games to qualify, but we’ll be talking about him as a positive contributor to the Cavs at season’s end. — Joe Vardon

Dallas Mavericks

Defense will be good … but not elite: The Mavericks think they can be the best defensive team in the NBA. They’re a huge team, and they have elite defensive personnel in their frontcourt. I think they’ll slightly underwhelm because of their ability to contain at the point of attack. They have no clear-cut stopper to slow other elite guards. They started D’Angelo Russell and Klay Thompson together in the backcourt some in the preseason. Neither is an ideal option against guards in the division, such as De’Aaron Fox or Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. — Christian Clark

Denver Nuggets

The Nuggets will win the West: This isn’t as wild as it sounds, Thunder fans. Yes, your team was historically dominant in the last regular season and should be properly respected as the reigning champs. But … the Thunder also came really close to falling to Denver in the seven-game, second-round series. The Nuggets have since landed the kind of roster depth that would have come in handy back then. One would imagine they’re even that much hungrier now, too, what with the 2023 title even further in the rear-view mirror. — Sam Amick

Detroit Pistons

Cade Cunningham will finish top three in MVP voting: Cunningham has increased his scoring numbers in each of his first four seasons, finished tied for seventh in MVP voting last year and shot 7 of 12 from behind the arc during the preseason. If he can take the proverbial leap as a 3-point shooter, don’t be surprised if Cunningham pushes the Pistons into the upper echelon of the East and finds his name atop MVP ballots in the process. The 24-year-old notched nine of his 11 career triple-doubles last season and will be tasked with even more responsibility in 2025-26. More responsibility means more opportunity, and now he has the Association’s attention. — Hunter Patterson

Golden State Warriors

The Warriors will make it to at least the Western Conference finals: It all boils down to health, but if the Warriors can stay healthy, they are deep enough and talented enough to make one more run in the West. Plus, they could still add another piece or two at the deadline. — Nick Friedell

Houston Rockets

Alperen Şengün will finish second in triple-doubles: Nikola Jokić led the NBA with 34 triple-doubles last season. I’m not bold enough to put Şengün in that rarified air yet. But with the absence of Fred VanVleet, Şengün will take on even more shot-creation responsibility than he did last season when he averaged 4.9 assists per game. Giannis Antetokounmpo was second in triple-doubles last season with 11. Assuming Şengün stays healthy, I’d be surprised if he doesn’t get at least 15 triple-doubles in 2025-26. I’d say it also helps having Kevin Durant on the team if you’re one of the guys looking to pick up more assists. — William Guillory

Indiana Pacers

Pacers get to the second round without Tyrese Haliburton: The East isn’t exactly a gauntlet this season with injuries to key players throughout the conference. Last season’s Pacers showed us that they’re a deep squad with a wizard for a coach. We can’t forget there are a few guys on the team with points to prove, and this season gives them an opportunity. Just sayin’ — don’t sleep on Indy. — Shakeia Taylor

LA Clippers

LA will match its best 20-game start under Tyronn Lue: The Clippers haven’t always been very good about starting seasons fast during Tyronn Lue’s previous five years as head coach. However, this is the first time Kawhi Leonard and James Harden have had a full camp to work together, in addition to the rest of a fairly loaded roster. This old team needs rest at the end of the season, and it’ll be motivated to get off to a fast start after running out of gas by early May due to its push at the end of last season to avoid the Play-In. A 15-5 record entering December should be an attainable and relatively necessary goal to achieve. — Law Murray

Los Angeles Lakers

LeBron James makes an All-NBA team: I’m really backing myself into a corner here with James missing the start of the season due to sciatica, but here’s betting that the reduced offensive load allows the 23-year vet to meet the 65-game minimum and earn another All-NBA spot because of his all-around greatness. — Dan Woike

Memphis Grizzlies

Cam Spencer and PJ Hall end up in the rotation: I nailed this last year with Scotty Pippen Jr., so let’s try it again. With Pippen and Ty Jerome injured, Luke Kennard gone and Ja Morant permanently questionable, the coast is clear for Spencer’s shooting and passing to carve out a much bigger role in the Memphis backcourt. Meanwhile, the 6-8 Hall may be undersized for a center, but he can play, and Memphis’ paucity of healthy bigs portends a Jay Huff-like ascent into the rotation. — John Hollinger

Miami Heat

Nikola Jović challenges for Most Improved Player: At only 22 years old, Jović enters his fourth NBA season poised to break out, thanks in large part to his new four-year, $62 million extension. At different times, he’s shown an ability to shoot, pass, defend and play in transition, tools he put on display during this past summer’s EuroBasket with Serbia. Without Tyler Herro for a while and Kel’el Ware still finding his way, Miami will need Jović to be a blend of tantalizing talent and young vet, which could help make a mark in this season’s Most Improved Player race. — James Jackson

Milwaukee Bucks

The Bucks will make more 3s than any other team (outside of Boston): Last season, the Bucks shot a league-high 38.7 percent from 3 but took the 18th-most 3s per game (36.6). This preseason, they upped that to 42.5 per game. With many of the same great 3-point shooters on the roster and increased volume, the Bucks should be able to make more 3s than any other team. (We’re not counting Boston here, because who knows how many the Celtics might take.) — Eric Nehm

Minnesota Timberwolves

The Wolves will win the championship: Did it not say BOLD predictions? I really like the vibe of this team. The players know one another and are stinging from getting embarrassed in Game 5 against the Thunder. I think Anthony Edwards will leap into the MVP discussion, Jaden McDaniels will become a household name and the continuity will carry them over the top.

OKC is the best team, but it’s really hard to repeat. Denver is awesome, but the Wolves always play the Nuggets well. Concerns about point guard are legitimate, but Minnesota is deep enough and talented enough to figure that out. And the Wolves have also proven that, even if they start slow, Chris Finch can figure things out to get them playing their best by the playoffs. I really think this could be their year. — Jon Krawczynski

New Orleans Pelicans

Jordan Poole will break Pels’ single-season 3-point record: Last year, my bold prediction was that Zion Williamson would make an All-NBA team. And while his recent physical transformation would make it easy to run that prediction back again this season, I decided to go a different direction. CJ McCollum broke the franchise’s single-season record with 239 3-pointers in 2023-24, which is only four more than Poole made in his final season with the Wizards last year. And Poole reached that number while playing only 68 games. A fully healthy season playing next to Williamson and Trey Murphy will give him plenty of opportunities from outside. I’m expecting Poole to be one of the top high-volume 3-point shooters in the league this year. — William Guillory

New York Knicks

New York will win the East: I’m not sure this is bold, but so much can happen between now and then that it’s still not something I feel comfortable saying. Still, though, the Knicks have probably the most proven talent of any other contending team in the East. And when things get tight, as they tend to do in the playoffs, New York has Jalen Brunson at its disposal. Cleveland will have the best record in the East during the regular season, but the Cavaliers have routinely flamed out in the playoffs. I think the Knicks’ offense will be less predictable come the postseason, and it’ll benefit New York immensely. — James L. Edwards III

Oklahoma City Thunder

Three Thunder players make All-NBA: I’m calling it — this is the leap year for Chet Holmgren, the one that vaults him from up-and-comer to full-fledged star. He’s already one of the league’s top rim protectors. He can fire away 3s. He’s a release valve for Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams, who have already made All-NBA teams. Let’s say Holmgren stays healthy (always a question) and the Thunder, who won 68 games last year, win 70, a supreme possibility given their youth and imperfect health a season ago. They could get three guys on All-NBA, and the natural next in line is Holmgren. — Fred Katz

Orlando Magic

The Magic will finish third in the East: My colleague John Hollinger recently predicted the Magic will finish second in the East standings. I’m not prepared to go quite that far, although I see a legitimate pathway to get there. I think John may be underestimating the adjustment time for Desmond Bane and Tyus Jones; even though they’re unselfish, veteran players, it takes time for newcomers to adjust and for returning players to adjust to new teammates.

Also, the Magic’s travel schedule is hellish. The mid-January trip to Berlin and London is a smart business move, but it’s a bad basketball move because of the mileage and time-zone changes. Finishing third in the regular season and gaining home-court advantage in the playoffs’ first round would be important for this still-young team. Over the last two postseasons, the Magic lost all seven of their road playoff games. — Josh Robbins

Philadelphia 76ers

Joel Embiid will play 58 games: This season will be the healthiest Embiid has been in multiple years. He’s learned how to listen to his body, and he’s made significant progress since the knee surgery in April. More importantly, the health gods owe Embiid a few years of relative health, right? … Right? What that does to the Sixers is up in the air. But Embiid will enjoy a run of being on the floor and playing basketball this season, relative to where he has been for the past 18 months. — Tony Jones

Phoenix Suns

They’ll win more games than last season: I know. Low bar. With the league’s highest payroll, the Suns won 36 games last season and missed the Play-In Tournament. It was a miserable year, one that couldn’t end quickly enough. This will be better. The weight of expectations is gone. Without Durant, Devin Booker will be more aggressive. Dillon Brooks will provide a defensive edge (and other shenanigans). Jalen Green will … actually, I’m not yet sure.

The whiff potential here is significant. To improve, the Suns will need big man Mark Williams to stay healthy, something he has not done. Booker will have to be at his best while bringing out the best in Green, a tricky task. Ryan Dunn will have to be consistent from 3. A playoff team? No. But 38 wins with a chance at the final Play-In spot? That’s doable. — Doug Haller

Portland Trail Blazers

Yang Hansen is runner-up in Rookie of the Year voting: The 7-foot-1 center from China will become one of the more intriguing watches around the league as he wows with deft passing, long-range shooting and agile footwork. The Blazers were mocked by some when they took Yang with the 16th pick, but his skill set is ready enough that coach Chauncey Billups has already declared he will be a rotation player. He won’t surpass the production and impact of top pick Cooper Flagg, but Yang will impress — and entertain. — Jason Quick

Sacramento Kings

Russell Westbrook will help (and they need it): What if Westbrook is really good for the Kings? As I wrote recently, Sacramento is a non-contending environment where I could see him raising the floor on a low-ceiling situation. This is far different from the high-expectation teams he was on these past few years (Lakers, Clippers, Nuggets). And if this prediction comes true, it’s fair to wonder how that might impact the starting point-guard spot that veteran Dennis Schröder was signed to fill. — Sam Amick

San Antonio Spurs

Victor Wembanyama will make the top 3 in MVP voting: Wembanyama’s preseason was a confounding battle of his burgeoning skill sets competing to see the floor. He did a little bit of everything, and the result was some pretty awesome output in low minutes. He looks primed to put up a season-long stat line we haven’t quite seen in years, if ever. If the Spurs can finish top six in the West and he’s averaging a power-ball box score, Wembanyama is going to give the last two MVPs a run for their money. — Jared Weiss

Toronto Raptors

Brandon Ingram will be an All-Star (and Scottie Barnes won’t): Whatever you think of their long-term plan, the Raptors are well-positioned to improve. If that happens, I think Ingram will be the offensive driver of an uptick. He is the Raptors’ most important player from an all-around perspective, but his defensive value remains underrated. Meanwhile, if Ingram stays healthy — I said if — he will become a huge part of opposing game plans. And it’s opposing coaches who vote on All-Star reserves. — Eric Koreen

Utah Jazz

Lauri Markkanen gets traded by the deadline: The extension before last season kept the Jazz from being able to tank even harder (if that’s possible) by trading Markkanen away. Now they can go get more assets for him as they search for a franchise guy. This upcoming draft is loaded with them. I’d expect Markkanen to be in a new uniform soon. — Zach Harper

Washington Wizards

The Wizards’ leading scorer will average under 20.0 points per game: Coach Brian Keefe wants the Wizards’ offense to share the basketball. If that democratic vision comes to fruition, the scoring load will be distributed well. Kyle Kuzma averaged a team-high 22.2 points per game two seasons ago, and Jordan Poole led the team last season with 20.5 points per game. The team’s key vets are CJ McCollum and Khris Middleton, and they tend to play the right way. Cam Whitmore has a reputation for lighting up the scoreboard when he has the green light, but it’s possible he will spend much of the season coming off the bench; that scenario would diminish his scoring. — Josh Robbins