Final Predictions, Head vs. Heart – Awards Daily

Best Actress

• Jessie Buckley, “Hamnet”
• Rose Byrne, “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You”
• Renate Reinsve, “Sentimental Value”
• Emma Stone, “Bugonia”
• Kate Hudson, “Song Sung Blue”

Talk about a category where there is a simple frontrunner, and no real chance of an upset. Jessie Buckley has won every precursor, and unlike PTA, there just isn’t a precedent or any sign of an alternative. Byrne won the globe for comedy/musical actress, but is a lone nominee, and everyone else has just not won a single prize. Being the representative win for Hamnet just feels right, and that’s that. 

Prediction: Jessie Buckley, Hamnet

Alternate: Rose Byrne, If I had Legs I’d Kick You

Best Actor

• Timothée Chalamet, “Marty Supreme”
• Leonardo DiCaprio, “One Battle After Another”
• Ethan Hawke, “Blue Moon”
• Michael B. Jordan, “Sinners”
• Wagner Moura, “The Secret Agent”

A category that has gone on quite a rollercoaster, from being what many deemed to be a Chalamet coronation, to being one of the most difficult categories to call of the night. 

With golden globe and critics choice, Chalamet still stands a decent chance of prevailing, but with the loss of BAFTA to the ineligible Robert Aramayo, and a loss at SAG to Michael B. Jordan, one has to go back twenty years to find a winner who could not prevail with either (Sean Penn for Mystic River). 

When in doubt, go with the strongest Best Picture contender, and that would be Michael B. Jordan for Sinners, who undoubtedly is the most heroic of the five (and the most likable character). If Coogler’s film is winning Best Picture (or even if it isn’t) the strength of the film bodes well for its lead in this category. Wagner Moura remains a wild card, but it’s hard to really say how much of a factor he could be. 

Prediction: Michael B. Jordan, Sinners

Alternate: Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme

Best Supporting Actress

• Elle Fanning, “Sentimental Value”
• Inga Ibsdotter LilIeaas, “Sentimental Value”
• Amy Madigan, “Weapons”
• Wunmi Mosaku, “Sinners”
• Teyana Taylor, “One Battle After Another”

A category that undoubtedly has been one of the most challenging to even analyze, it seems as if Amy Madigan might have an edge despite being a lone nominee, not having swept, nor showing up everywhere. 

The simple issue, Teyana Taylor nor Wunmi Mosaku seem to really be defining the race in a strong enough manner to actually present a clear edge, or to challenge Madigan’s narrative. With CCA and SAG, it’s enough to win, but not enough to feel overtly confident in it. If Sinners or One Battle After Another is having an incredible night, than one could make the argument either could win, but alas.

Prediction: Amy Madigan, Weapons

Alternate: Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners

Best Supporting Actor

• Jacob Elordi, “Frankenstein”
• Sean Penn, “One Battle After Another”
• Stellan Skarsgård, “Sentimental Value”
• Benicio del Toro, “One Battle After Another”
• Delroy Lindo, “Sinners”

Betting against a SAG and BAFTA winner is never easy, neither is it any easier when there is no number 2 in the category.

Sean Penn, despite playing a fairly unlikeable character (or arguably because he is playing one), has solidified himself as the frontrunner with no clear #2, perhaps his co-star Benicio Del Toro or Jacob Elordi (CCA winner) could be the statistical #2, or Stellan Skarsgård (golden globe winner) but it’s really hard to say. 

Some will make the argument that Delroy Lindo has a fair shot here, having not “lost” anywhere, but with no evidence to suggest he is the #2 to Penn, it’s hard to really say unless Sinners is sweeping. 

Prediction: Sean Penn, One Battle After Another

Alternate: Delroy Lindo, Sinners

Original Screenplay

• “Blue Moon,” Robert Kaplow
• “It Was Just an Accident,” Jafar Panahi, with script collaborators Nader Saïvar, Shadmehr Rastin, Mehdi Mahmoudian
• “Marty Supreme,” Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie
• “Sentimental Value,” Eskil Vogt and Joachim Trier
• “Sinners,” Ryan Coogler

Not much to say here other than Ryan Coogler is the frontrunner with very little chance of an upset. Having won the BAFTA, CCA, and having won the WGA, there is just no room for an upset. 

Prediction: Sinners

Alternate: Sentimental Value

Adapted Screenplay

• “Bugonia”; Will Tracy
• “Frankenstein,” Guillermo del Toro
• “Hamnet,” Chloé Zhao and Maggie O’Farrell
• “One Battle After Another,” Paul Thomas Anderson
• “Train Dreams,” Clint Bailey and Greg Kwedar

Having won the Golden Globe for Screenplay, USC Scripter, BAFTA, and WGA, Paul Thomas Anderson is at the very least unstoppable here. 

Prediction: One Battle After Another

Alternate: Hamnet

Animated Film

• “Arco”
• “Elio”
• “KPop Demon Hunters”
• “Little Amélie or the Character of Rain”
• “Zootopia 2”

Not much to talk about here. KPOP Demon Hunters has swept the season, hardly losing a single award anywhere (even pulling an impressive haul at the Annies), the Baftas solidified Zootopia 2 as the alternate, and even so, the former was not even eligible. 

Prediction: KPop Demon Hunters

Alternate: Zootopia 2

International Film

• “The Secret Agent,” Brazil
• “It Was Just an Accident,” France
• “Sentimental Value,” Norway
• “Sirât,” Spain
• “The Voice of Hind Rajab,” Tunisia

With two Best Picture nominees in the category, it’s very possible that this race is much closer than one imagines despite the nomination haul (nine for Sentimental Value and four for The Secret Agent) being a major difference for some. One can also point to last year’s race, where late-breaker I’m Still Here prevailed over Emilia Perez as justification that quantity and nomination period does not mean much at all.

However, Sentimental Value has no controversy nor is it a film that has many detractors. Norway has not prevailed in this category either, thus, it seems fairly sensible to go with the film the academy seems to like a decent amount here, though the race is probably much closer than anyone expects. 

Prediction: Sentimental Value

Alternate: The Secret Agent

Documentary Feature

• “The Perfect Neighbor”
• “The Alabama Solution”
• “Come See Me in the Good Light”
• “Cutting Through Rocks”
• “Mr. Nobody Against Putin”

A category that has become difficult to read over the past few weeks, with The Perfect Neighbor losing at both the Baftas and the Producers Guild, it still might be the safe option to stick with the film, as its relevancy resides with American voters, and its win at places such as ACE show that there is still enough passion to get it over the finish line, though Mr. Nobody Against Putin is the alternative. 

Prediction: The Perfect Neighbor

Alternate: Mr. Nobody Against Putin

Casting

• “Hamnet”
• “Marty Supreme”
• “One Battle After Another”
• “The Secret Agent”
• “Sinners”

In its inaugural year, this category in theory would be difficult to call. Nevertheless, having won awards at the casting guild, and SAG ensemble, Sinners seems like the safe bet here, though it’s hard to tell exactly what the criteria is for academy voters here is. 

Prediction: Sinners

Alternate: One Battle After Another

Film Editing

• “F1”
• “Marty Supreme”
• “One Battle After Another”
• “Sentimental Value”
• “Sinners”

A category that is heavily correlated to Best Picture, there is absolutely a world where Sinners prevails here, having won ACE and possibly winning Sound (we will get to the category in a bit). Nevertheless, One Battle After Another having won ACE (in a separate category) and BAFTA, in addition to being considered the “most editing” of the five nominees, makes it a clear frontrunner here. F1 remains a possibility but its loss at ACE signifies issues for the film overall outside of Sound.

Prediction: One Battle After Another

Alternate:  Sinners

Costume Design

• “Avatar: Fire and Ash”
• “Frankenstein”
• “Hamnet”
• “Marty Supreme”
• “Sinners”

Having swept the season everywhere it can, Frankenstein has proven to be unstoppable in its trio of design categories. It’s tough to say what the runner-up might be, but one could probably point towards Sinners due to its supposed “late surge”

Prediction: Frankenstein

Alternate: Sinners

Production Design

• “Frankenstein”
• “Hamnet”
• “Marty Supreme”
• “One Battle After Another”
• “Sinners”

Having swept every precursor, Frankenstein seems assured to win this, with Hamnet’s set decorator guild being the evidence of the runner up. 

Prediction: Frankenstein

Alternate: Hamnet

Makeup and Hairstyling

• “Frankenstein”
• “Kokuho”
• “Sinners”
• “The Smashing Machine”
• “The Ugly Stepsister”

Akin to the past categories, no sign of an upset here. Frankenstein all the way with Sinners behind it. 

Prediction: Frankenstein

Alternate: Sinners

Visual Effects

• “Avatar: Fire and Ash”
• “F1″
• “Jurassic World Rebirth”
• “The Lost Bus”
• “Sinners”

Avatar: Fire and Ash has swept this category at every precursor despite being snubbed in every category outside of Costume Designs. F1 could arguably be looked at as the runner-up, but even so, it’s fairly assured to take this easily. 

Prediction: Avatar: Fire and Ash

Alternate: F1

Original Score

• “Bugonia,” Jerskin Fendrix
• “Frankenstein,” Alexandre Desplat
• “Hamnet,” Max Richter
• “One Battle After Another,” Jonny Greenwood
• “Sinners,” Ludwig Göransson

Ludwig Göransson has swept every precursor imaginable for Sinners, and, even if the film doesn’t prevail in Best Picture, it seems very likely to prevail here, pretty appropriate for work that has become iconic over the past year. Greenwood remains the runner-up. 

Prediction: Sinners

Alternate: One Battle After Another

Original Song

• “Golden” from “Kpop Demon Hunters”
• “Train Dreams” from “Train Dreams”
• “Dear Me” from “Diane Warren: Relentless”
• “I Lied To You” from “Sinners”
• “Sweet Dreams Of Joy” from “Viva Verdi!”

Though one could make the case of Sinners pulling an upset in this category if the film has a strong night, Golden has just become so dominant and an enormous phenomenon that one would be bold to bet against it. Just look at the Grammys, and look at the types of work the industry tends to vote for. 

Prediction: Golden from Kpop Demon Hunters

Alternate: I Lied to You from Sinners

Best Sound

• “F1”
• “Frankenstein”
• “One Battle after Another”
• “Sinners”
• “Sirāt”

With its wins at Cinema Audio Society on top of BAFTA, F1 seems to have cleared a pathway for it to prevail, with this award serving as its consolation prize. However, after blanking at MPSE, and Sinners taking two awards (with signs of late momentum)  

Prediction: F1

Alternate: Sinners

Cinematography

• “Frankenstein”
• “Marty Supreme”
• “One Battle After Another”
• “Sinners”
• “Train Dreams”

What started off as a very competitive race between three films in Train Dreams, One Battle After Another, and Sinners has seemingly become a likely place for PTA’s film to prevail in. Michael Bauman has won the british society of film critics, ASC, and Bafta, an industry sweep if one were to suggest. The alternate would be Train Dreams which won cinematography at Critics Choice, or even Sinners with its 16 nominations. 

Prediction: One Battle After Another

Alternate: Train Dreams

For the shorts, it’s really anyone’s game, so here are my predictions. 

Live Action Short Film

• “Butcher’s Stain”
• “A Friend of Dorothy”
• “Jane Austen’s Period Drama”
• “The Singers”
• “Two People Exchanging Saliva”

Prediction: Two People Exchanging Saliva

Alternate: Any of the four

Animated Short Film

• “Butterfly”
• “Forevergreen”
• “The Girl Who Cried Pearls”
• “Retirement Plan”
• “The Three Sisters”

Prediction: Forevergreen

Alternate: Any of the four

Documentary Short Film

• “All the Empty Rooms”
• “Armed Only with a Camera: The Life and Death of Brent Renaud”
• “Children No More: Were and Are Gone”
• “The Devil Is Busy”
• “Perfectly a Strangeness”

Prediction: All The Empty Rooms

Alternate: Any of the four