Ohio Republican and Democratic lawmakers are set to agree to a deal on a new congressional map that would give a slight, but not overwhelming, boost to the GOP ahead of next year’s midterm elections, a source familiar with the negotiations told NBC News.
Members of the state’s bipartisan redistricting commission plan to make the deal public at a Thursday meeting that would shift two Democratic-held districts to the right and one to the left. It would also maintain 10 districts that favor Republicans and two that are Democratic strongholds. Punchbowl News was first to report details of the deal.
The deal comes as a surprise to many observers. Democrats largely expected the constitutionally mandated redistricting commission to reach a stalemate, as it did in 2021. If the commission failed to settle on a new map ahead of the 2026 elections, responsibility for setting congressional boundaries would have fallen back to the Republican-controlled Legislature, which could have drawn an aggressively gerrymandered map. If that happened, Democrats threatened to pursue a statewide referendum that could have resulted in voters blocking the map from going into effect.
A map enacted by the state’s redistricting commission wouldn’t be subject to a referendum, while Democrats would avoid the worst-case scenario map. In negotiations, the source said, Republicans showed Democrats a map that had the GOP controlling 13 of the state’s 15 districts.
A voter referendum on such a map would have required Democrats to gather nearly 250,000 signatures in just 90 days, a difficult feat under any scenario, let alone during the holidays and Ohio’s winter months.
The state is represented in Congress by 10 Republicans and five Democrats. Democratic Reps. Greg Landsman and Marcy Kaptur would face more competitive districts under the new map, while Rep. Emilia Sykes’ district would become slightly more Democratic.
Under the current lines, the Cook Political Report with Amy Walter rated Kaptur’s and Sykes’ seats as “toss ups” and Landman’s as “likely Democratic.”
The emergence of Ohio’s new map proposal comes amid an unusually aggressive mid-decade redistricting cycle, kicked off by President Donald Trump, who has asked Republican-led states to draw new maps in an effort to shore up the party’s narrow U.S. House majority.
Texas, Missouri and North Carolina have all drawn maps boosting Republicans, while California Democrats are asking voters to approve new district lines next week.
Virginia Democrats have taken steps this week to modify their redistricting commission to allow them to redraw their state’s map next year, while Indiana GOP lawmakers are expected to soon consider a redistricting effort. Other states, including Louisiana, await a Supreme Court ruling they hope could open the door to redrawing their congressional maps next year, too.
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