Tom Aspinall. UFC 321. This is your moment.
Even when Jon Jones was parading around as the “undisputed” champion, his inactivity and insistence on defending the title against an aged and even more inactive Stipe Miocic left the door open for Aspinall to be considered the true heavyweight king after he defeated Sergei Pavlovich for an interim belt at UFC 295 (a bout that was put together due to Jones-Miocic being postponed). Our rankings panel at MMA Fighting was quick to embrace Aspinall as the true No. 1 in his division, but it wasn’t until Jones retired this past June that the UFC officially followed suit.
Now, Aspinall finally bears the undisputed mantle and he has to prove once again he deserves it when he takes on Ciryl Gane in Saturday’s main event. Gane, also a former interim champion, has twice had the chance to claim sole ownership of the UFC heavyweight title and twice he has fallen short. He has nothing to lose and would delight at least one fight fan to no end if he upsets Aspinall.
In the UFC 321 co-main event, Virna Jandiroba and Mackenzie Dern battle in a rematch to become the next strawweight champion. Pound-for-pound great Zhang Weili left the division to take on flyweight champion Valentina Shevchenko at UFC 322, giving two top contenders the opportunity to join the hallowed list of UFC titleholders. Will it be the streaking Jandiroba or the perpetually promising Dern that ends their long-awaited hunt for gold?
Also on the main card, Umar Nurmagomedov and Mario Bautista clash in a potential No. 1 bantamweight contender bout, Alexander Volkov and Jailton Almeida do the same at heavyweight, and light heavyweight veteran Aleksandar Rakic looks to break a slump when he faces the undefeated Azamat Murzakanov.
Where: Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi
When: Saturday, Oct. 25. The eight-fight early preliminary card begins at 10 a.m. ET on ESPN+, Disney+, and FX. The five-fight main card begins at 2 p.m. ET exclusively on ESPN+ pay-per-view.
(Numbers in parentheses indicate standing in the MMA Fighting Global Rankings and Pound-for-Pound Rankings)
Tom Aspinall vs. Ciryl Gane
To coin a cliché, this is Tom Aspinall’s fight to lose.
Aspinall and Ciryl Gane have been in each other’s orbit for some time, well before Aspinall claimed any form of UFC title. And you know what I thought of the matchup back then? Aspinall is going to tackle Gane and submit him or beat him with ground-and-pound. That prediction has not changed.
Credit to Gane, who has clearly worked to level up his grappling as evidenced in his controversial split decision win over Alexander Volkov. It’s still an imperfect set of tools, but he’s at least trying to avoid getting bulldozed again like when he fought Jon Jones. That said, I can’t imagine he’s reached the point where his wrestling defense is enough to stop Aspinall.
Even taking into account Gane’s superb athleticism and agility, Aspinall can match him in that department, at least enough to cut off the cage and find angles to latch on to Gane and put him on the mat. From there, it will be just like the Jones fight. Maybe worse.
Puncher’s chance and all that, and Gane has a knack for making life difficult for his opponents (again, anyone not named Jon Jones), but even if it takes a couple of rounds or three for Aspinall to catch him, he’s going to catch him. Then it’s over.
Virna Jandiroba vs. Mackenzie Dern
Rematches can often be drastically different from the first encounter and given that Virna Jandiroba and Mackenzie Dern’s first fight was almost five years ago, there’s reason to believe that’s likely the case with Saturday’s co-main event. I’m not convinced.
Back at UFC 256, Jandiroba and Dern competed primarily on the feet as their extensive grappling pedigrees canceled each other out. I expect the same here, because even though Jandiroba is far superior at getting takedowns, Dern has no issue fighting off of her back and I’ll be amazed if Jandiroba can out-muscle her on the mat. Quite clearly, Dern is in the best shape of her life, and she already had a considerable athleticism advantage over Jandiroba the first time.
So there will be plenty of striking in this one, as well as some grueling sequences with the fighters pressed against the fence and jockeying for position. Takedowns will come and I look forward to some exquisite scrambles, but neither fighter should be able to submit the other. I mean, can you imagine?
So give me Dern in a competitive standup contest, with her speed and power allowing her to win the majority of the exchanges and…
Mackenzie Dern is about to become a UFC champion???
Umar Nurmagomedov vs. Mario Bautista
Full disclosure (and this is no secret to anyone who’s kept up with my takes): I’m an Umar Nurmagomedov backer all the way. I picked him to beat Merab Dvalishvili (wrong!) and I’ll pick him to beat Merab Dvalishvili again if they rematch (we’ll see!).
So how can I pick against him here?
Truthfully, were it not for my dogged belief in Nurmagomedov, I’d be nervous for him. Nitpick Mario Bautista’s eight-fight win streak all you want, the man finds a way to win fights. That sounds simplistic, but when we’re talking about the often finicky judges’ scorecards, that’s an actual skill. An art, even.
Just as importantly, Bautista makes his opponents look bad. He has a gift for forcing his opponents to take the path of most resistance and while that can lead to some ugly decisions, they’re decisions that frequently go in Bautista’s favor. Dana White has challenged Nurmagomedov to put on a show if he wants another title shot and I’m not even sure that’s possible against Bautista.
Best case scenario, Nurmagomedov gets to display some of his high-level striking, but also focuses on taking Bautista down early and often. Bautista hasn’t dealt with a wrestler of Nurmagomedov’s prowess… ever? And I don’t see him stopping takedowns if that’s the focus of Nurmagomedov’s game plan.
You know what? I’m going out on a limb here and predicting Nurmagomedov wows the boss, scoring a submission late in Round 1.
Alexander Volkov vs. Jailton Almeida
What I just said about Nurmagomedov might go double for Jailton Almeida. This man will be heavyweight champion someday.
Almeida’s dreary five-round win over Derrick Lewis and subsequent letdown loss to Curtis Blaydes did major—but not irreparable!—damage to his contender case, but he’s bounced back nicely doing what he does best: taking people down and finishing them fast. His past two wins over Serghei Spivac and Alexandr Romanov both ended in the first round.
Alexander Volkov is several notches above that level of opposition. He did enough to beat Gane and arguably should be in Saturday’s main event, but instead he’s playing gatekeeper to the top 5 against one of the most dangerous fighters in the division. That’s nothing new for the towering Volkov, who has spoiled many a contenders rise to the top.
Based on his majestic mane alone, it’s tempting to pick Volkov. You can see him replicating what Blaydes did to beat Almeida, stuffing the Brazilian’s signature takedown against the fence and battering him with elbows. But Volkov isn’t Blaydes when it comes to takedown defense and even Blaydes was put on his back and at first before finding the win in Round 2. If Volkov ends up in the same kind of trouble, he’s going to have trouble recovering.
I have concerns about Almeida’s cardio as he’s rarely fought past the first round and the one time he did in the UFC, it was against Lewis in a bout where Almeida was in complete control for 25 minutes. Volkov has so much more experience, that could be the difference in the final frame.
With that in mind, I’m still picking Almeida to snatch up those giraffe legs early, put Volkov on his back, and finish in Round 1.
Aleksandar Rakic vs. Azamat Murzakanov
I’d love to see a back-and-forth battle here, but I have a feeling this is going to be one-way traffic one way or another.
If it’s Aleksandar Rakic who gets the win, it will be because he’s had a much stronger strength of schedule than Murzakanov. No, Rakic hasn’t won a fight since 2021, with much of his time lost to injury. But he’s also been in there with the best of the best, suffering consecutive losses to Magomed Ankalaev, Jiri Prochazka, and Jan Blachowicz (who he suffered a knee injury against). Those are three UFC light heavyweight champions, folks.
Who is Azamat Murzakanov’s best UFC opponent? Alonzo Menifield? Dustin Jacoby? Solid names, but they definitely don’t compare to who Rakic has had to deal with.
So this is either going to be the younger and yet more battle tested Rakic showing Murzakanov there are levels to this game and picking him apart before possibly finishing late, or Murzakanov just running through the slumping Rakic. I’ve bought in to the Murzakanov hype, so I’m sticking to that.
Murzakanov by first-round knockout.
Nasrat Haqparast def. Quillan Salkilld
Ikram Aliskerov def. Jun Yong Park
Mateusz Rebecki def. Ludovit Klein
Valter Walker def. Louie Sutherland
Nathaniel Wood def. Jose Miguel Delgado
Chris Barnett def. Hamdy Abdelwahab
Azat Maksum def. Mitch Raposo
Jaqueline Amorim def. Mizuki Inoue
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