Why we’re targeting a deep Arkansas run

The field of 68 is all set for the 2026 Men’s March Madness. 

With Selection Sunday for now in the rearview mirror, to no one’s surprise, Duke, Arizona, Michigan, and Florida earned No. 1 seeds. 

These powerhouses sustained consistent play throughout the year, with both the Wildcats and Blue Devils capturing their conference regular-season and tournament championships. 

This quartet also carries the best outright odds to win it all: Duke (+340, bet365), Arizona (+360), Michigan (+375), and Florida (+750). 

Every Tournament, though, a team seemingly goes under the radar, but somehow finds its way crashing into the later rounds. 

Whether it’s a mid-major Cinderella or an underrated power conference contender that builds momentum late, bettors know the feeling of wagering on a team that continues to deliver in March.

Let’s dive into an early best bet for March Madness 2026, as this SEC team is riding the hot hand of their heralded freshmen point guard.

NCAA Men’s Tournament early prediction, best bets

John Calipari and the Arkansas Razorbacks open tournament play as the No. 4 seed in the West Region.

The Razorbacks are coming off an SEC Tournament championship after defeating Vanderbilt by 11 points in the Final. 

This is your typical Calipari high-powered offense, as Arkansas’ 89.9 points per game ranks 4th for most in the country, and KenPom lists their 127.7 offensive rating as the 6th best. 

They have won five straight games, including 10 of their last 12 and feature Darius Acuff Jr., the unanimous Conference Player of the Year. 

Acuff Jr. is having quite the first-year campaign and is flying up NBA draft boards. His stat line of 30.3 points, 7.7 assists, and 4.7 rebounds over three games earned him SEC Tournament MVP honors.

He was also awarded First Team All-SEC, First Team All-Freshman, and Freshman of the Year. 

Maleek Thomas joins him in the backcourt, while versatile wing Billy Richmond III, and a pair of 6-foot-10 bigs in Trevon Brazille and Nick Pringle comprise the Razorbacks starting five. 

Betting on College Basketball?

The road to the Sweet Sixteen for the Razorbacks is an opening-round matchup against No. 13 Hawaii, followed by the winner of the No. 5 Wisconsin-No. 12 High Point game.

The Rainbow Warriors shouldn’t present any issues for Arkansas in Round 1, and 5-12 matchups are always tricky in the tournament, so a runaway win over High Point if they were to upset the Badgers could come into play.

If Arkansas handles business, it’ll likely run into Arizona in the Sweet Sixteen, creating a terrific backcourt showdown between Acuff Jr. and Big 12 Player of the Year Jaden Bradley.

The coaching DNA of Calipari could propel the Razorbacks to an upset in that contest, setting the stage for a potential Elite Eight matchup with No. 2 Purdue or No. 3 Gonzaga.

Calipari has coached his way into six Final Four appearances with three different schools, his last coming with Kentucky in 2015.

After taking down some of the SEC’s best in a three-day span, this team can very well make a trip to Indianapolis with Acuff Jr. leading the way.

The Plays: Arkansas to make Sweet Sixteen (-145, bet365) | Arkansas to make Elite Eight (+425, BetMGM) | Arkansas to win West Region (11/1, DraftKings Sportsbook)

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Mike Turay is a sports journalist and editor who closely follows the NBA, NFL, college sports and UFC. He has demonstrated expertise in both NBA and NFL player prop bets for nearly three years. Mike is also highly knowledgeable about the sportsbook offer landscape, frequently trying and reviewing the latest apps and sites.