Assessing College Football Playoff Race at Midseason

Forty names, games, teams and minutiae making news in college football (administrative show of support sold separately at North Carolina). First Quarter: The Swift, Sudden, Stunning Fall of James Franklin. Second Quarter: Who Can Really Win National Titles?

After six games for most teams, it’s time to start digging in on the playoff race. A Dash breakdown of the bracket as it stands today, with detailed information on who has done what so far, and what the contenders haven’t done.

Miami (21)

Seed: No. 1.
Overall record: 5–0.
ACC record: 1–0.
Record vs. current AP Top 25: 2–0.
Record vs. Power 4/Notre Dame: 3–0.
Home record: 4–0.
Road record: 1–0.
Best win to date: Notre Dame.

Three teams have separated slightly from the pack, and The Dash puts the Hurricanes first among those three. Their largest (and only) deficit of the season is three points in the first quarter against Florida State. Miami isn’t as explosive offensively as last year’s team, which was led by No. 1 NFL draft pick Cam Ward, but it is much better defensively. The Canes are on pace to allow their fewest points per game (13.6) since the national championship juggernaut of 2001. 

What Miami hasn’t done yet: Win outside its home state. With six of their first seven games at home, the Hurricanes’ first road trip outside state lines is Nov. 1, at SMU.

Ohio State (22)

Seed: No. 2. 
Overall record: 6–0. 
Big Ten record: 3–0. 
Record vs. current AP Top 25: 1–0. 
Record vs. Power 4/Notre Dame: 4–0.
Home record: 4–0. 
Road record: 2–0. 
Best win to date: Texas.

The repeat bid is alive and very well, with Ohio State winning every game since the opener against the Longhorns by at least 18 points. The Buckeyes are powered by a monster defense that leads the nation in fewest points allowed per game (6.8) and in red zone stops. The young offense has been efficient, with redshirt freshman quarterback Julian Sayin playing at a high level. Nearly half of his 15 touchdown passes have been to Jeremiah Smith (seven).

What Ohio State hasn’t done yet: Played a ranked team on the road. And it won’t, unless Michigan gets back into the Top 25 by season’s end. The other two remaining road games are against Wisconsin and Purdue, which are a combined 4–8.

Indiana 

Seed: No. 3.
Overall record: 6–0. 
Big Ten record: 3–0. 
Record vs. current AP Top 25: 1–0. 
Record vs. Power 4/Notre Dame: 3–0. 
Home record: 4–0. 
Road record: 2–0. 
Best win to date: at Oregon.

Coming off the conquest in Autzen Stadium, the Hoosiers have vaulted into the top quartile of the bracket. Criticism of the soft nonconference schedule has melted away after successive impressive wins over Illinois, Iowa and Oregon. This is a better team than last year’s 11–2 squad in virtually every area, ranking in the top 15 nationally in both yards per play (7.1) and yards per play allowed (4.2). Cignetti for emperor.

What Indiana hasn’t done yet: Nothing, frankly. You could make a case for them being higher than No. 3, but the nonconference schedule is a hindrance that neither Miami nor Ohio State has.

Texas A&M

Seed: No. 4.
Overall record: 6–0. 
SEC record: 3–0. 
Record vs. current AP Top 25: 1–0. 
Record vs. Power 4/Notre Dame: 4–0. 
Home record: 5–0. 
Road record: 1–0. 
Best win to date: at Notre Dame.

The Aggies have taken advantage of everything that’s been given to them. When Notre Dame dropped an extra-point snap to leave open the door for a one-point loss, A&M delivered it. When the SEC gave them three straight home games to start league play, the Aggies won them all. The offense has been balanced, the defense has been disruptive (21 sacks, 47 tackles for loss). If there are glaring weaknesses, they haven’t been exposed yet.

What Texas A&M hasn’t done yet: Win an SEC road game, Those opportunities are up immediately, with consecutive trips to Arkansas on Saturday, LSU on Oct. 25 and Missouri on Nov. 8.

Texas Tech (23)

Seed: No. 5.
Overall record: 6–0. 
Big 12 record: 3–0. 
Record vs. current AP Top 25: 1–0. 
Record vs. Power 4/Notre Dame: 3–0. 
Home record: 4–0. 
Road record: 2–0. 
Best win to date: at Utah.

The portal kings are stomping people, winning every game by 24 points or more. The Red Raiders have the highest yards-per-play differential in the nation (7.41 yards on offense, 3.98 on defense), and are the only team in the nation that has scored more than 30 points every game while allowing fewer than 20 every game. Quarterback Behren Morton’s health is a chronic concern, but freshman backup Will Hammond has had some very good moments in relief. 

What Texas Tech hasn’t done yet: Make anyone forget that the nonconference schedule consisted of Arkansas-Pine Bluff, Kent State and Oregon State. 

Alabama (24)

Seed: No. 6.
Overall record: 5–1. 
SEC record: 3–0. 
Record vs. current AP Top 25: 3–0. 
Record vs. Power 4/Notre Dame: 4–1. 
Home record: 3–0. 
Road record: 2–1. 
Best win to date: at Georgia.

The Crimson Tide has the best collection of victories of anyone, with three straight over ranked SEC opponents and two of those on the road—a nice upgrade after a 2–4 road record in Kalen DeBoer’s first 14 games. Alabama has a certified slinger in quarterback Ty Simpson and an excellent receiving corps, plus an opportunistic defense that has produced a plus-nine turnover margin.

What Alabama hasn’t done yet: Run the ball with any explosiveness. Or make everyone forget the two-touchdown loss to Florida State happened—a résumé smudge that gets deeper the more the Seminoles lose.

Georgia (25)

Seed: No. 7.
Overall record: 5–1. 
SEC record: 3–1. 
Record vs. current AP Top 25: 1–1. 
Record vs. Power 4/Notre Dame: 3–1. 
Home record: 3–1. 
Road record: 2–0. 
Best win to date: at Tennessee.

The Bulldogs have lived dangerously, needing to come back from double-digit deficits to beat Tennessee and Auburn. (The double-digit deficit against Alabama could not be overcome.) But they’ve been an excellent second-half team, outscoring opponents 100–37 after halftime. After some defensive vulnerability against the Volunteers and Crimson Tide, that unit has started to perform more like you’d expect from a Kirby Smart team.

What Georgia hasn’t done yet: Start well against a quality opponent. And there are several more of those remaining on the schedule, starting Saturday against Mississippi.

Mississippi (26)

Seed: No. 8. 
Overall record: 6–0. 
SEC record: 3–0. 
Record vs. current AP Top 25: 1–0. 
Record vs. Power 4/Notre Dame: 3–0. 
Home record: 5–0. 
Road record: 1–0. 
Best win to date: LSU.

Nobody else in the Dash bracket has had an in-season quarterback change and kept thriving, much less going to a Division II transfer. But it’s working with Trinidad Chambliss, even if the Rebels were held to a season-low 439 yards against Washington State on Saturday. The defense isn’t quite as dominant or opportunistic as last season, but Ole Miss is running the ball better than it has since 2022.

What Mississippi hasn’t done yet: Prove itself on the road, with just a seven-point win at Kentucky on the résumé. The Rebels go between the hedges Saturday then follow that up at Oklahoma next week.

Oregon

Seed: No. 9.
Overall record: 5–1. 
Big Ten record: 2–1. 
Record vs. current AP Top 25: 0–1.
Record vs. Power 4/Notre Dame: 3–1.
Home record: 3–1. 
Road record: 2–0. 
Best win to date: at Northwestern, surprisingly enough.

This is how drastically things have changed in the last few weeks in the Big Ten: The hyped showdown victory over Penn State matters less now than the win nobody paid attention to against Northwestern on Sept. 13. But now that the Wildcats have also won in Happy Valley, and have a better record than the Nittany Lions, that’s Oregon’s signature accomplishment to date. (Which, frankly, isn’t a lot.) The Ducks remain very talented on both sides of the ball, but their offense was stuffed in the second half by Indiana on Saturday.

What Oregon hasn’t done yet: Win a game that has résumé staying power. The final third of the Ducks’ schedule includes road trips to Iowa and Washington, with a home date against USC in between.

BYU (27)

Seed: No. 10. 
Overall record: 6–0. 
Big 12 record: 3–0.
Record vs. current AP Top 25: 0–0.
Record vs. Power 4/Notre Dame: 4–0.
Home record: 3–0. 
Road record: 3–0. 
Best win to date: at Arizona in overtime Saturday.

After the tumultuous loss of quarterback Jake Retzlaff during the summer, freshman Bear Bachmeier has stepped into the breach and generally played well in an offense now leaning into the running game. Something to keep an eye on in the latter half of the season: BYU has given up more points in every game, from a shutout to three allowed to 13, 21, 24 and 27. The Cougars have also turned the ball over five times in their last two games.

What BYU hasn’t done yet: Beat a ranked opponent. The Holy War crusade against No. 23 Utah on Saturday could check the box.

Georgia Tech (28)

Seed: No. 11. 
Overall record: 6–0. 
ACC record: 3–0. 
Record vs. current AP Top 25: 0–0. 
Record vs. Power 4/Notre Dame: 4–0. 
Home record: 4–0. 
Road record: 2–0. 
Best win to date: Clemson.

The Yellow Jackets thought they had a signature win over Clemson on Sept. 13, but that hasn’t aged as well as hoped. Nevertheless, they have stacked wins, riding the dual-threat capability of hard-edged quarterback Haynes King and a defense that has been good enough but not dominant. This is a veteran team, and it shows in being 3–0 in one-score games. 

What Georgia Tech hasn’t done yet: Beat a ranked opponent or win a big road game. The only currently ranked team on the schedule is Georgia, which the Yellow Jackets will face on Black Friday. Their game against 4–2 Duke on Saturday will qualify as a significant road test.

South Florida (29)

Seed: No. 12. 
Overall record: 5–1. 
American record: 2–0. 
Record vs. current AP Top 25: 0–1. 
Record vs. Power 4/Notre Dame: 1–1. 
Home record: 3–0. 
Road record: 2–1. 
Best win: at Florida.

The Bulls’ only loss is to top seed Miami, which is offset by the triumph in The Swamp, a beatdown of Boise State and a road romp last week against previously undefeated North Texas. The South Florida offense has exploded the last three games, averaging 572 yards and 60 points. A defense that leads the nation in takeaways with 16 has helped, 

What USF hasn’t done yet: Stayed buttoned up offensively. The Bulls have turned the ball over 10 times in the last four games. The defense has also been lit up a couple of games in pass coverage.

Also considered

First Round

Quarterfinals 

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